Gary, after all the trials and lottery scandals a little dose of sex and politics sounded interesting so when I read your blog (see below) about Vernon Robinson’s new ad about Brad Miller I looked at the copy on factcheck.org.

Unfortunately, poor Vernon’s his own worst enemy. He has two legitimate points. Congressman Miller did miss the vote that included body armor…and he did vote to find four studies of sexual habits that sounded, well, a little unusual. There may not be much of civility and what my grandmother used to call ‘good manners’ in politics but there is a little. What Vernon doesn’t seem to understand is there’s a line candidates cross at their own risk and a lot of people are going to see using words like “prostitutes,” and “genitalia” in an ad crosses it.

Vernon has taken issues most people would agree with him on and expressed them in a way that will probably offend most people – and, worse if you’re Vernon, raise a question in their minds about his judgment.

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This is from Dick Morris’ newsletter (“Attack Dog – Bill Threatens Media”) about President Clinton’s interview on the Today Show and his eruption during an interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News. Morris says former President Clinton’s ‘Play Book,’ when it comes to dealing with critics, works this way: “Item one is ‘deny the allegation;’ and item two is ‘shoot the alligator.’” (DickMorrisReports@Vote.com)

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Well, Gary, I watched President Clinton on Fox News the other night and it was like old times not forgotten. He said four times he wanted to kill Osama bin Laden and it was sort of a shock hearing the words, “We tried to kill him,” come out of anyone’s mouth quite so bluntly. He even had me convinced until I remembered him saying, “That depends on what the definition of is, is.”

Anyway, he said one other thing that was interesting. He said if he’d invaded – I’m not sure if he meant in Afghanistan, Iraq or both – he’d have twice as many troops there as President Bush.  Personally, with our generals in Iraq saying they can’t win without more men I think he may be right. But, I’m wondering how the idea of sending more soldiers to fight overseas is going to sit with Democratic voters in the primaries next year when Hillary runs for President? It’ll be interesting to see how ‘The Clinton Playbook’ explains that.

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One of our readers wonders whether Vernon Robinson has gone too far this time – with an ad claiming Rep. Brad Miller voted to fund sex research but not body armor.

Factcheck.org calls the ad “distasteful” and “misleading.”  Click here to read its analysis and view the ad: http://www.factcheck.org/article442.html.

The website says:

“Robinson accuses…Miller of voting to spend money on silly-sounding sex studies into masturbation, prostitution and arousal of teenage girls while trying ‘to deny our soldiers the body armor they need to save their lives.’

“We find the ad misleading on several counts. Miller did nothing that would have denied body armor for troops. There was no connection between the National Institutes of Health studies in question and funding for body armor. And despite the misleading way the ad belittles them, the sex studies had such stated goals as slowing the spread of AIDS, understanding homosexuality and improving the lives of senior citizens as their sexual function declines.”

Maybe it goes too far.  Maybe it won’t work in a Democratic year.  Maybe voters will conclude Robinson has no business in Washington.

But Miller’s campaign shouldn’t take anything for granted.

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Republicans at least, one Republican also stood up publicly this week to protest President Bushs Iraq policy.  And that Republican was Walter Jones of North Carolina.

I noticed this in one of the camera shots.  But I didnt see it reported in any of the mainstream media.

News reports said a group of Democratic Senators and Congressmen held their own hearing to hear from retired military officers criticizing Secretary Rumsfelds performance in office.

But there clearly in one of the pictures was Jones.

Now, Walter can be maddeningly contradictory.

When he was a Democratic state legislator, he made Democrats mad by joining the coalition with Republicans that elected Joe Mavretic speaker in 1989.

He made us doubly mad when he left the party to run for Congress as a Republican in 1994.

Now hes making Republicans mad by protesting Republican war policies.  And hes been a critic of Republican budget policies.

I once heard Walter say he was a Baptist whod converted to the Catholic Church and a Democrat who switched to the Republican Party and he was a lot happier with his choice of churches.

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Sometimes you just have to wonder about the United Nations. Last week the President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, flew to New York to address the United Nations the day after President Bush spoke. “’Yesterday, the devil came here,’ Chavez said, drawing giggles from the audience as he crossed himself, looked toward the heavens and said the spot ‘still smells of sulfur.’” (Chicago Tribune; 9-21-06).

“ ‘The President of the United States, the gentleman to whom I refer as the devil, came here talking as if he owned the world,’ Chavez continued.”

Now just in case anybody doesn’t get the point that’s not just George Bush Mr. Chavez is talking about: It’s all of us.

What’s at stake here is a seat – which Mr. Chavez is running for – on the United Nations Security Council. He says, “We will win…even though the gringo’s and imperialists don’t want it.”

The United States opposes his candidacy. China, Russia, Argentina, and Brazil (who are supposed to be our friends) support him. So does Iran, Syria and The Arab League.

Why does it matter? Because once he is on the Security Council Mr. Chavez will get to vote on sanctions on Iran – and he’s already said he is all for Iran when it comes to enriched plutonium.

You might have hoped the United Nations’ reaction to the President of Venezuela calling the President of the United States – or anyone else – the devil would have been outrage. Or condemnation. Instead Kofi Annan hasn’t said a word, the delegates giggled and applauded and our friends in China, Russia, Brazil and Argentina are voting against us.

It’s hard not to conclude it would be the height of folly to believe the United Nations is going to put America’s interest first when it comes to Iran.

PS – I read recently that Venezuela owns one of the major oil companies (CITGO). With gas at $3 per gallon they made $32 billion in profits out of the United States – money Mr. Chavez gets to spend.

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“Half of all the women in the United states are single, and they voted for John Kerry in 2004 by a margin of 25 points” – (DickMorrisReports@Vote.com).

I guess because I’m old and married I never thought of half the women in America as being single; and though I knew women are more likely to vote Democratic than men I never thought the margin among single women was a whopping 25 points.

No wonder political analyst Dick Morris says single women are Hillary Clinton’s ‘secret weapon’ and their votes mean she’ll likely win the Presidential election in 2008 if she gets the Democrats nomination.

The good news – if you’re a Republican – is unlike most pundits Morris isn’t certain Hillary will actually win the nomination. He argues a recent ten point drop in the polls shows Hillary is slipping and other candidates – like Al Gore – making gains. On the other hand, I’m afraid – if Hillary does get the nomination – Dick Morris may be right about single women.

Years ago, just before Hillary ran for Senate, I went into a restaurant in New York with a friend and he sat down at the bar by a blonde single girl. Eventually he got around to asking:

 “Well, what do you think of Hillary running for Senate?”

The girl said adamantly:  “I’m going to vote for her.”

My friend shook his head. “Why?”

“Because the ‘suits’ are against her.”

My friend frowned, puzzled. “The ‘suits’?”

She explained the ‘suits’ were businessmen, executives, CEO’s, and they were holding back young women like her. He asked: “Where do you work?”

She said she worked at one of the biggest stock-brokerage firms in New York. He asked: “What do you do?”

“I’m a broker.”

“Where did you go to school?”

“UCLA. But I’m about to go to the Wharton School of Economics in Philadelphia to get a Masters degree.”

“What does your father do?”

“He’s a fireman.”

“So did you go to school on a scholarship?”

“I did.”

“So let me get this right: your dad’s a fireman, you went to UCLA on a scholarship, you’ve got another scholarship to Wharton, you’re making, what, say $125,000 a year, as a stockbroker – and the ‘suits’ have screwed you?” He added: “Is there any way I can convince you not to vote for Hillary?”

She said firmly: “No.”

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The Bush Administration seems to be doing everything it can to lose the war against terror, but I still don’t know if Democrats can win the political battle.

The headlines are bad for Bush:

• Intelligence agencies say the Iraq war has spread terror instead of stopping it.

• Retired military officers bash Rumsfeld for malpractice.

• The military is stretched to the breaking point.

• The Taliban is coming back in Afghanistan.

• Osama is still alive.

But Democrats have a problem.  We haven’t decided whether we’re an antiwar party or an anti-terror party.

So Bush has gone back to the old game plan.  No, not Karl Rove’s game plan.  It’s the same game plan Republicans have used since Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1980:  Democrats are weaklings who won’t protect America.

If that message sticks, it doesn’t matter how much of a hash Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld make in the Middle East.

Bill Clinton, I think, shows Democrats the way.  And maybe inadvertently.

His outburst against Fox and Chris Wallace didn’t interest me because of what everybody else seized on: his temper, the truth he spoke about Fox news or how it might help or hurt Hillary.

No, it was the language he used:

“I tried to kill Osama.  I failed, but I tried.  And some people didn’t try.”

Nice, simple, clear, strong words. 

“Kill Osama.” 

“I tried.”

“Some people didn’t try.”

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I don’t know Durham District Attorney Mike Nifong but, sometimes, he says things that leave me shaking my head. Like when the press asked him why the defense attorneys tried to have him recused from the Duke Lacrosse trial. Mr. Nifong said, in effect, ‘Well, if he was a defense attorney he wouldn’t want to have to face Mike Nifong in a trial either.’

Last week, Mr. Nifong accused the defense lawyers of conducting a poll to influence jurors and he wants a judge to put the other lawyers under oath and pillory them for unethical conduct.

What’s his proof?

He says his wife got polled.

Watching the scrambling among Democratic – and a couple of Republican – politicians as they brace for Kevin Geddings’ lottery trial is like having a ringside seat at a play. There’ve been outbreaks of amnesia, proclamations of dubious virtue, and more than a few usually articulate public officials who have suddenly been struck dumb and speechless.

Take Governor Easley’s press conference last week: The Governor knows nothing. He hasn’t been subpoenaed, he hasn’t asked his staff if they’ve been subpoenaed and no one has told him they’ve been subpoenaed and that suits him fine because he doesn’t want to know anything. In fact, he says, he’d prefer not to know.

The day after Easley expressed his ignorance prosecutors named him as a potential witness at the trial which seems to say they think he may know something. They also named his chief aide, Dan Gerlach, his chief political consultant, Mac McCorkle, and the Lt. Governor, Beverly Purdue, as potential witnesses.

Consider Easley’s position: He’s presiding over the governorship during what may be the biggest scandal in North Carolina history – but he claims he hasn’t even asked his staff if they’ve been subpoenaed. Hard to believe? How about this: The Governor also says no one on his staff has told him if they’ve been subpoenaed. Think about that: If a loyal staffer were subpoenaed wouldn’t he report it to the Governor or would he just let the Governor read about it in the newspaper?

The Governor’s senior advisor, Dan Gerlach, has been quoted in the press regularly for years speaking out on complex issues. Suddenly he has been struck speechless. He won’t say one way or the other if he’s been summoned to testify.  The same malady has stuck the Governor’s press secretary: She says she doesn’t know who in the Governor’s office may have been subpoenaed or asked for documents. Don’t the people on Governor Easley’s staff still talk to one another?

In political jargon this is called ‘Stonewalling.’

But consider this: Mr. McCorkle knew Geddings was lobbying for a seat on the Lottery Commission in April of 2005 – six months before Geddings was appointed. So did he pick up the phone and tell Governor Easley and Speaker Jim Black – ‘Don’t appoint Geddings, he’s tied to lottery venders?’ No one has answered that question. All Mr. McCorkle says is he worked ‘behind the scenes’ to stop Geddings. But what does that mean? Does it mean he called Governor Easley and Speaker Black and they said, Thanks, Mac, but we really don’t care if he’s tied to lottery venders. How likely is that?

Or, on the other hand, does it mean McCorkle didn’t do anything to oppose Geddings until after the News and Observer put Geddings’ ties to Scientific Games on the front page of the newspaper – in other words did McCorkle’s opposition to Geddings only begin after it was politically expedient?

Of course, the Democrat at the center of this scandal – the one his fellow Democrats may decide to leave holding the bag – is House Speaker Jim Black. Black says he came up with Geddings’ name on his own and, by God, when he did he had no idea of Geddings’ ties to the lottery industry.

Thursday in court a U.S. Attorney was a little more specific. He said that Black decided to appoint Geddings on September 21, 2005 after a dinner with lobbyist Meredith Norris and lottery-vender Scientific Games Vice President Alan Middleton. Now that doesn’t sound like Black just dreamed up Geddings’ name; and it doesn’t sound very likely he didn’t know of Geddings’ ties to lottery venders – because Geddings had been working for the man Black was having dinner with for four years.

Of course, that’s not proof. Black and Norris and Middleton may only have talked about hockey at their dinner. But consider this: The U.S. Attorney probably didn’t just stand up in federal court and dream up that charge. He probably got his information from one of three people at the dinner – Norris, Middleton or Black – or he may have some other proof (like the email Norris sent Geddings after the dinner which the newspapers have referred to).

Two Republicans have also been named as potential witnesses in the trial. They are the two State Senators who were absent the day of the final vote on the lottery – and it was their absence that allowed the lottery to pass. One was sick. But the other was on what he called a ‘delayed’ honeymoon in Myrtle Beach. He says he couldn’t be interrupted and no one could get in touch with him so he didn’t even know there was a vote. Maybe this is a case of true romance triumphing over politics but it might be interesting if he gets called to testify and the prosecutor asks what inducements he was offered by Governor Easley’s administration to stay on that ‘delayed’ honeymoon – and if he talked with any of the Governor’s appointees during the time he says he couldn’t be interrupted.

What we have here is a rare event: Legislative politics is like an iceberg – 90% of it is below the surface and the 10% you see is clouded with blue-smoke, mirrors and ‘spin.’ Kevin Geddings’ trial may cut through all that. We may get a clear look at the tip of the iceberg, then we may get to look at the rest of it and we may learn a lot about how politics works – under Mike Easley, Jim Black, and Marc Basnight – in the State Legislature.

We may even find out if Geddings’ appointment was really dreamed up by Black or if he was chosen at the meeting with Scientific Games Vice-President Alan Middleton. And if Mac McCorkle really did oppose Geddings – or whether he only opposed him after it was politically expedient. And we may even learn that Governor Easley’s not really as blasé as he sounds.

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An editorial in The News & Observer fondly hopes that Governor Easley’s appointees to lead the Progress Board – Mac McCorkle and John Merritt – will revive the board, which has been wandering in the wilderness for years now. 

Not a chance.

The Progress Board has always been plagued by a fatal premise: Its supporters believe that the Governor and the legislature should put up public money and then appoint them to be kind of a super-board of directors for the state.

These brilliant people on the Board see themselves as telling the Governor and the legislature where they are falling short in meeting their public responsibilities.

Nice work if you can get it.  But don’t count on it.

No politician is going to create an institution whose sole purpose is to bite the hand that feeds it.

And nobody with any political sense should expect them to.

The real motivation behind the Progress Board has always come from progressives (and I know most of them) who want an alternative to the Locke Foundation.

Well, we need that alternative.  But we shouldn’t expect the taxpayers to foot the bill.

These progressives need to put up or raise the money themselves, just like the Popes did to launch the Locke Foundation. 

It’s time to put up or shut up.

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Nobody comes off well in the dispute over Raleigh’s downtown art.

• Would-be benefactor Jim Goodmon looks high-handed and arrogant.

• Mayor Charles Meeker gets blasted by Goodmon:  “He followed the herd.”

• City Manager Russell Allen started the brouhaha, but couldn’t – or wouldn’t – stop it.

• Arts lovers sound elitist and condescending.

• The people of Raleigh – we are led to believe – are a bunch of uncultured boobs who don’t deserve visionary public art.

Somebody – or several somebodies – needs a reality check here. 

First, don’t blame the public.

Fact is, the taxpayers of Raleigh – and all North Carolina, for that matter – put up a lot of money for an Art Museum and other arts programs. 

But here is the political fact of life: People here are mad about taxes and spending and about to vote on a nearly $1 billion school bond issue.  It’s not the right time to send them an ill-defined bill for an ill-defined art project they can’t visualize.

Leaders – which Meeker and Goodmon are supposed to be – ought to be able to solve this.  It is revealing that neither has been able to.

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Dear Carter,

I hate it that President Bush gave in to the Democrats on this issue.                                    

Best,

         A Reader

President Bush’s ‘New’ Policy

The US Navy today announced that it has released a senior Al Qaeda terrorist after questioning him extensively for 27 days while being held prisoner aboard a US aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

In a humanitarian gesture, the terrorist was given $50 US and a white 1962 Ford Fairlane automobile upon being released from custody.

The attached photo shows the terrorist on his way home just after being released by the Navy.

P.S. This was sent in by a reader. CW

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We’ve blogged earlier about the Service Employees International Union jumping into Raleigh’s City Council race last year.  They’re back.

We hear that SEIU representatives were in Raleigh this week – meeting with sanitation workers who then staged a slowdown.

The SEIU is targeting public employees as part of its larger, more active and aggressive national approach.  This should make city politics interesting in the months to come – and in next year’s municipal election.

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Now George Bush says this is a “battle for civilization.”  No it isn’t.  And that’s exactly why he’s bad for America.

Like all second-term Presidents, Bush yearns for a place in history.  So his rhetoric grows ever-more overblown:

• The struggle against radical Islam is “the calling of our civilization.”

• “The safety of America depends on the outcome of the battle in the streets of Baghdad.”

• “We are now in the early hours of this struggle between tyranny and freedom.”  (Note: the War in Iraq has now lasted longer than our part in World War II.)

More and more, the American people suspect that all Bush’s rhetoric is just not true.

More and more, 9/11 looks like a combination of:

• A zealous but tiny group of fanatics who bluster about hitting us again but seem unable to pull together even the beginnings of another serious plot;

• A government in Washington (yes, Bill Clinton too) that was almost willfully unaware of the threat;

•  A dysfunctional air-security system.

But Bush wasn’t satisfied to hit back and cripple the attackers.  For reasons political and probably personal, he had to turn this into World War III and himself into Franklin D. Churchill.

Unfortunately, he’s dragging the rest of us along with him.

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Not to long ago State Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Carmen Hooker-Odom claimed she was going to save taxpayers millions by hiring a new computer vender to process the state’s Medicare claims.

Today the new vender is a year behind schedule, the system is not in place, the state is in a contract dispute with the vender, and instead of saving taxpayers money Mrs. Hooker-Odom has cost them millions.

Now, the News and Observer (8-19-06) reports Mrs. Hooker-Odom’s Department has mishandled $151 million in Medicaid claims – which have to be repaid to the federal government. A good chunk of the money will come from taxpayers.

That’s nearly $200 million in miscues by Mrs. Hooker-Odom’s department but, of course, ‘the buck’ doesn’t stop with her. It stops with Governor Easley. You’d expect $200 million in problems at his Department of Health and Human Services would get the Governor’s attention. Unfortunately, the status quo seems to suit Governor Easley just fine.

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First the federal government shot down Raleigh’s hopes for light-rail money.  Now the State Board of Transportation has cut off the spigot.  Who is to blame?

Here are some nominees:

• The Mayor and City Council.  Heckuva job lobbying, folks.  And now Mayor Meeker is suggesting a half-cent local sales tax instead.

• The Wake County legislative delegation.  Comprised of Republican wingnuts and Democrats who won’t stoop to pork.

• Would-be Mayor Nina Szlosberg, who served on both the ill-fated TTA (light rail) and the Board of Transportation.

Any others I should mention?

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Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker may set the record for most mentions as a potential candidate for statewide office.  But my bet is that he runs again for Mayor.

Rumors this summer had him looking at Attorney General (if Roy Cooper ran for Governor, which he won’t), State Treasurer (if Richard Moore runs for Governor, which he will) or Lieutenant Governor (Beverly Perdue has been running for Governor forever).

I even saw one letter to the editor pumping Meeker as a candidate for Governor.  (Not happening.)

The only thing standing between Charles and statewide office is at least $1 million.  Which is why I bet he runs for reelection.

He may win easily.  But he needs to start worrying now, because here is the case against Meeker that a potential opponent might make:

• An over-budget Convention Center, a $20 million downtown hotel subsidy and a $34 million downtown underground parking deck;

• An overemphasis on downtown at the expense of fast-growing North Raleigh;

• More taxes and more fees (Carter’s favorite);

• More road congestion.

And the right opponent – a woman from North Raleigh, a Democrat and a centrist with business support – could make him wish he’d gone for the brass ring.

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There is a controversy simmering around the state about government using its right to Eminent Domain to seize private property.

A recent article in the News and Observer – about the Triangle Transit Authority – gives an example. Last year, the TTA took Mr. Bob Morrison’s business, ‘Bob’s Service Garage,’ in Durham because it wanted the land to put up a Lite-Rail train depot.

When they took Mr. Morrison’s property they offered to pay him $215,000. The problem was he owed $300,000 on his mortgage -- so he had to hire a lawyer and go to court to fight the TTA. Last month, the TTA paid him $480,000 (News and Observer; 8-22-06)

But that’s not the end of the story. A few days later the TTA announced it had given up on getting federal grants to build Lite-Rail. Mr. Morrison told the newspaper: “So they done got my place and got me out of that place for what reason? They don’t deal like normal people normally do business.”

In the end, after a legal wrangle, Mr. Morrison was compensated for his property. But as his lawyer said: “…that’s not what Bob wanted. Bob wanted his service garage. Those things have been taken. Now there’s a question of whether they have been taken for anything that’s ever going to happen.”

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“Plamegate” in Washington and “Deckergate” in Raleigh make me wonder about the political power of federal prosecutors.

For years, Democrats took great glee over the investigation into who outed CIA agent Valerie Plame.  Especially when it looked like Karl Rove would be the ultimate victim.

Just as North Carolina Republicans take great glee over the ongoing investigation surrounding Speaker Jim Black.

But Plamegate had a decidedly disappointing denouement for Democrats.

It turned out Rove hadn’t done it.  Richard Armitage had.

Then it turned out the federal prosecutor had known that fact for years – even before he started his investigation.

Something’s wrong with that picture.

Now, I have no idea what the prosecutor persecuting – excuse me, prosecuting – Deckergate knows or will do.

But – whether you’re a Democrat or Republican – there’s something scary about the full law enforcement power of the federal government bearing down on a politically sensitive case.

Especially when most federal prosecutors seem to be career politicians on the make.

Here’s a solution: Pass a law prohibiting former prosecutors from ever holding another political office.

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Raleigh Arts Commissioner Lee Tripi recently spoke out on behalf of Juame Plensa’s Plaza in the News and Observer 8-17-06. He wrote:

“Decisions concerning public art should not be about what any individual likes or dislikes…

“Those who see more value in hot beds of asphalt …than in having a city square with cultural significance and artistic implications should be politely heard but never taken seriously…”, and,

“We should seek to enlighten those who have not developed an understanding of artistic expression…”

Well, now.

Think about that a moment. It sounds like what Mr. Tripi just said -- more or less -- is if you can’t recognize Mr. Plensa’s genius you may be a redneck to be pitied, educated but never taken seriously.

All you rednecks out there write this down: C-H-A-R-L-I-E  M-E-E-K-E-R. And remember, next time the Mayor runs for reelection, he helps appoint the Arts Commissioner.

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With the price of gasoline soaring the state must – it has to be -- be awash in gas tax revenues – so why does it seem every time I open the newspaper the headline reads “DOT Delays Road Construction”? (News and Observer, 9-6-06) It seems the DOT hardly builds roads anymore – at least around Raleigh.

There is just something wrong with this picture. Higher gas taxes equals less roads? How can it be? Maybe its just a coincidence but every time the DOT says it can’t build a road it seems the state Turnpike Authority pops up and says it can – with a toll. There may be a political law of unintended consequences at work here. For years, either the DOT built the highways or they didn’t get built. Now they have an alternative: they can say no and the Turnpike Authority will step in and fill the gap.

The way it’s going pretty soon the Authority will be as big as the DOT -- maybe then the question will be do we need both. If the Turnpike Authority is going to build the roads why not change the name of the Department of Transportation to the Department of Road Maintenance – and do away with the gas tax?

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That’s the cliché de jour, but I think 9/11 changed our lives in ways we can’t yet see – or even imagine.

It’s not just leaving your shampoo and toothpaste out of the carry-on bag.

History is an unpredictable thing.

Think about Vietnam.  Thirty-five years ago, nobody could have imagined how deep and searing the wounds from that war would be in our society and our world view today.

So try to imagine:

• What will be the historical impact of George Bush using 9/11 as a pretext to launching what threatens to become a war of Islam Vs. The West?

•  If America is attacked again, who will we declare war on?

• Will our government ever regain the public trust in the wake of the damage Bush has done?  And what will that mean for our future?

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Gary, here’s some good news for your folks on the Democratic side of the aisle.

Each month the Civitas Institute takes a poll; in August they asked voters who they would vote for in the elections for state legislature this fall – a Democrat or a Republican. Voters said:

Republican:                 36%

Democrat:                   40%

Neither                        7%

Not Sure                      17%

Now, trailing by four points doesn’t sound too bad for Republicans at first blush. But think of it this way: 24% of the voters are undecided. To win the election Republicans must get 58% of their votes -- and that’s not easy. (The poll also showed 52% of the voters now disapprove of the job President Bush is doing and that’s a pretty bleak swing for North Carolina Republicans too).

But there is a ray of light: 80% of the voters think Democratic House Speaker Jum Black should resign due to his fundraising scandals and 75% don’t think Democrats have done enough to clean up the scandals in Raleigh.

That is twice as many people as are now voting Republican -- which tells Republicans pretty clearly which issue they should be debating with Democrats this fall.

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In June the Wake County Commissioners raised property taxes. In July they endorsed raising them, again, if the School Bond passes. And in August they voted to raise them a third time.

This time the Commissioners want to reassess the value of your home more often -- and to keep the tax rate fixed after the reevaluation (rather than reducing it as has been done for decades after reassessments).

What does this mean?

The county revenue director projects that “single family homes in Raleigh worth more the $185,000 will see an average 32% increase in value after the 2008 reassessments.” (News and Observer, 8-17-06) That means – when the tax rate isn’t lowered -- your property taxes are going to go up 32%, too.

County Commissioner Chairman Tony Gurley says, “This is a way of making growth pay for itself.” But unless you just built a new house it’s hard to see his logic. Calling a tax increase “making growth pay” is just a bit of political slight-of-hand to disguise the third property tax increase in three months.

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The City has asked Spanish ‘artist’ Jaume Plensa to redesign the ‘Plensa Plaza.”

Mayor Meeker has his director of the City’s Urban Design Center handling the new plan. The Director says Plensa will have plenty of room and flexibility under the new guidelines (News and Observer, 9-4-06). The idea, he says, is “Fayetteville Street needs something eye-catching to pull people in, so restaurants and retail stores will see traffic and open along the sidewalks.” He added, “Plensa can still work from a broad palette and create anything from giant orange globes to a bank of fifty television screens.” (I’m not kidding; that’s a direct quote from the News and Observer.)

As a taxpayer I have to shake my head and wonder at all the money Mayor Meeker is spending on Plensa’s Plaza. But as a Republican, I have to say, I think those orange globes are going to look great in a TV ad next election.

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Unions have long been politically weak in North Carolina.  But the state may see a new, more aggressive and more politically savvy union offensive in elections over the next three years.

The Service Employees International Union – which The News & Observer called “the nation's largest public employee union” – gave $100,000 to the House Democratic caucus in August.

The same union financed mailings against developer-backed candidates in the Raleigh city elections last year.  They may be back next year.

And it is part of the Change To Win labor coalition that plans to play a big role in picking the Democratic presidential candidate in 2008.

North Carolina’s Democratic Party has long been moderated by the need to raise money from business people.  The union – and its progressive allies – are out to change that.

That’s why they’ve partnered with the State Employees Association of North Carolina.  Public employees – state government, teachers and local governments – are fertile ground for union growth.

This could all mean a more “populist” (some call it liberal and some call it progressive) path for Democrats.

It will certainly mean a more aggressive focus on corporate abuses, as in the anti-Wal Mart campaign.

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What if we Democratic dogs catch the car and win both houses of Congress this year?

If I’m a Democratic presidential candidate, I’m not sure I’m happy about that.  Here’s why:

• Democrats suddenly share the blame for anything that goes wrong, doesn’t go right or doesn’t get passed.

• Republicans get to run against Congress.

• Democratic members of Congress get more interested in protecting their new chairmanships – and new office suites – than electing a Democratic President who will probably lead them somewhere they don’t want to go.

Sometimes in politics, winning one election sows the seeds of the next defeat.

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When Brad Miller was in the State Senate he finagled his way onto the Redistricting Committee where he promptly drew himself a Congressional District. Now he’s Congressman Miller in Washington.

Congressman Miller’s opponent this fall is Republican Vernon Robinson. Vernon is colorful, flamboyant, persistent (he has lost half-a-dozen elections but keeps right on running), an Air Force Academy graduate and the son of a Tuskegee Airman. He has the courage to stand up to the political establishments in both the Democratic and Republican parties. And he is also one of those candidates who loves a political brawl – but he hasn’t learned that sometimes a political ad can backfire.

Vernon’s campaign has been calling a pre-recorded phone message to voters about immigration. It’s set to the tune of the ‘Beverly Hillbillies’ theme and goes like this: “Come and listen to me tell about a politician named Brad – He gave illegal aliens everything we had…”

It ends: “Hey, all you illegal aliens, put your shoes on. Don’t y’all come back, y’hear?” (News and Observer 8/24/06)

It sounds catchy and it was bound to get the press’ attention – which it did. Plus, polls say 80% of the voters agree with Vernon on immigration. So what’s the problem?

My guess is when a voter hears Vernon’s ad instead of saying to himself, There’s a man I agree with – he may be shaking his head and asking, Who was that guy?

Political debates are messy. They’re not governed by the Marquis of Queensbury rules and there’s nothing wrong with Vernon taking Brad Miller to task for his votes on immigration. The question is what will people remember about Vernon’s ad: Brad Miller’s voting record on immigration – or hanging up their phone and wondering, Who’s that guy?

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The Raleigh Arts Council has told Jaume Plensa his $4.3 million plaza in the middle of Fayetteville Street has to be redone. That it can’t be in the middle of the street and it can’t block the view.

 So, Jaume’s going back to the drawing board.

So far people have been debating whether this is an appropriate work of art to put on Fayetteville Street. But I think the real debate should be is this Art or Not? Is Plensa’s Plaza a work of art – or a park.

Maybe Mayor Meeker would like to have the first say in this debate. Mr. Mayor, who should be building Plensa Plaza – the Arts Council or the Parks and Recreation Department?

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David Broder of The Washington Post wrote recently that Congress is the “broken branch” of government.

Broder bemoaned problems ranging from “runaway budgets to the lobbying scandals to the near abandonment of effective oversight of executive agencies.”

Also, “impotence and inaction, not just on immigration, but on energy, health care and the war in Iraq.”

He said Congress needs reform, a new spirit and new people.

But he did not mention what it most needs: competitive elections.

So long as virtually every member of the House holds a virtual lock on his or her seat – thanks to redistricting – they have little fear that voters will penalize them for anything they do or don’t do in Washington.

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It took us four years to defeat Hitler, two years to defeat the Kaiser and it took the North four years to defeat General Lee. In a few days we will have been fighting the terrorists for five years.

I know this is a new kind of war and people say we shouldn’t judge it by other wars. But is defeating Al Qaeda really tougher than defeating Hitler?

New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman says one of the problems is we are fighting this war with the Rumsfeld Doctrine – and not the Powell Doctrine (News and Observer, 8/17/06). He describes the difference this way: the Rumsfeld Doctrine is to use just enough troops to lose – while the Powell Doctrine is to use overwhelming force.  He doesn’t put it this way but one is a bean-counter’s approach to war, while the other is a general’s approach.

The other problem might be called ‘The Sherman Doctrine’ versus the ‘Limited War Doctrine.’

The Sherman Doctrine is brutal. General Sherman said, War is hell, and he meant it and burned a good part of Georgia and South Carolina as a result. It takes real guts for a politician to stand up and defend the Sherman Doctrine because he’s got to defend things like, well, burning Atlanta.

‘The Limited War Doctrine’ is a much happier doctrine politically. First, we go in and surgically remove the enemy’s infrastructure and communications with laser guided bombs. Then we declare anyone in a uniform with a gun in his hands is an enemy – but, beyond that, we try to limit the brutality of war. The Limited War Doctrine is a noble theory. But, unfortunately, it has faltered where terrorists hide in the suburbs and store weapons in people’s homes and then say – for instance when Israel bombs the suburbs where they are hiding –  Look how terrible that is, look at what Israel has done to these innocent people. Then someone – like the French Ambassador – falls over in a swoon.

Every day the war in Iraq is sounding more like another Vietnam and one reason is the Rumsfeld Doctrine. Fighting ‘limited’ wars may be good ‘politics’ – but it didn’t work in Vietnam or Korea and it doesn’t seem to be working today. Maybe General Sherman was right and there’s just no avoiding the brutality of war.

And what about Republicans? We are in almost total denial about the failure of the Rumsfeld Doctrine. We don’t want to talk about it. Or debate it. But we should. We need a strategy to win the war on terrorism and the Democrats sure aren’t offering one. And that strategy should include addressing the big unspoken problem: oil.

 “Here we are,” Friedman writes, “in the biggest struggle of our lives and we are funding both sides – the US military with our tax dollars and the radical Islamists and the governments and charities that support them with our gasoline purchases…”

If we want to have a moral argument about war how about this one: Does it make sense for us to send our soldiers to fight in Iraq – and then let our oil dollars be used to fund the people who are fighting against them?

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Election forecasts are less reliable than hurricane forecasts.  But Democrats have realistic chances to take control of both the House and Senate in Washington.

If they do, the political world will be turned upside down:

• George Bush can look ahead to two years of total political irrelevancy;

• Democrats in Congress will put forward a raft of far-reaching bills – and challenge Bush to veto them;

•  Corporate America will be on the defensive

•  Democratic presidential wanna-be’s will be even more aggressive, and there may be a real twist in the race: Hillary Clinton might decide her future lies in being a Senate powerhouse – even Majority Leader – for the next 20 years, rather than making a risky run for President;
  

• And Hillary might endorse John Edwards for President.

A series of Zogby polls give Democrats hope of taking the Senate.  Zogby says:

 
The online polls of Senate and gubernatorial races in 26 states find Democrats with an edge in several contests, including Pennsylvania and Ohio, where two–term Republican incumbents Rick Santorum and Mike DeWine continue to trail their Democratic challengers, while Democrats in New Jersey and Michigan are battling against surprisingly strong GOP challengers.

Complicating matters for Republicans, though, is sudden vulnerability on the part of Virginia Sen. George Allen. The Old Dominion Republican, who led Democrat Jim Webb by a comfortable margin a month ago now trails by one point, following remarks he made that some considered racially insensitive.

 
In other states:

•  Joe Lieberman leads Ned Lamont by 10 points in Connecticut;
  

• In Missouri, Republican incumbent Jim Talent leads Democrat Claire McCaskill by five points.
  

• In Pennsylvania, Santorum trails Bob Casey by nine points;
  

• DeWine trails Democrat Sherrod Brown by eight points in Ohio.

Zogby adds:

Also troubling for Republicans is the large number of close contests, including a surprisingly strong showing by Nevada Democrat Jack Carter, son of the former president, who now only trails Republican incumbent John Ensign by three points. And in Tennessee, Republican nominee Bob Corker holds onto a tenuous four-point lead over Democrat Harold Ford Jr. in the race to replace retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.

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Last Spring, when the State Board of Elections held hearings into the pay-to-play scandals, the Board asked House Speaker Jim Black if he was paying Representative Michael Decker’s legal bills. (Representative Michael Decker later plead guilty to accepting a $50,000 bribe to change parties and vote for Black for Speaker). Black told the Board no, not for this matter.

Then last week the Associated Press reported one of Black’s political committees had paid Decker’s attorney $10,000.

Black was probably telling the truth when he told the Board ‘no, not in this matter’. But he was also parsing words:  it was the caveat – not for this matter – that was important and not the ‘no.’ What the Board was asking was if Decker had an obligation to Black. The Speaker gave them part of the picture – but not all of it.

Black probably dodged an awkward question with his answer – he wasn’t seen as paying the legal bills for Representative Decker when he took the Fifth Amendment and refused to testify at the Board Hearing.

But in the larger sense Black may have done himself a disservice because by only answering part of the Board’s question Black may undermined confidence in his leadership once more.

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