Triangle Transit Authority (TTA) officials have finally admitted they cannot meet the federal standards to get money from Washington to build their lite-rail project. But are they going to pitch their tent and save the taxpayers the millions they are pouring into the TTA each year?

Well, no.

According to the News and Observer (News and Observer, 5/30/06), Congress is considering promoting new public-private partnerships to build public transit. No one knew it – until now – but suddenly it turns out that is the TTA’s “special strength.”

“This is Congress acknowledging what we’ve felt all along was a hallmark of this project,” a TTA trustee boasted last week.  

Huh?

Ronald Reagan once said the closest thing to eternal life on earth is a government program. The TTA proves it.

Now, it is trying to work a deal with a private investor to develop the sites around twelve rail stops that haven’t been built and that the TTA admits it can’t get the money to pay for. But the TTA wants to build the developments anyway. Before the first rail is laid. What’s more it says it can return a whopping $65 million on its investment in just a few years.

So, the Triangle Transit Authority is going to turn itself into a developer. Subsidized by taxpayers.

The Triangle Transit Authority is like the Frankenstein’s monster in the old black and white movies in the 1930’s. At the end of the movie the monster dies but then the sequel comes out and you find out he wasn’t dead at all.

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Art Pope must be tickled to death.

Last month he lead a campaign to defeat five Republican legislators – saying they were really pawns of Democratic House Speaker Jim Black – because three years ago they voted for a coalition that elected Republican Richard Morgan and Democrat Black Co-Speakers of the House.

Of course, the Republicans Pope targeted vehemently denied they were anyone’s pawns. But Black’s attacks on Pope certainly make it look like Pope had a point.

Black says Pope “eliminated a great statesman” when he defeated Representative Richard Morgan (News and Observer, 5/4/06). If Morgan has any plans of running for office again as a Republican that endorsement was the last thing he needed.

Black also “painted Pope’s activities as wealth trumping bipartisanship.” He said: “You’re not going to see any more of that from the Republican side because Uncle Art is going to get you.”

Pope sent his own not too subtle message back. He said “there are no plans to fund an independent campaign focused on Black…but no final decision has been made.”

The fight in the Republican primaries this year wasn’t about bipartisanship. It was about who was going to lead Republicans in the House. In the end, by defeating Morgan, Republican voters in his district expressed their disapproval of his continuing alliance with Black.

What Black doesn’t seem to understand is that by attacking Pope he isn’t helping Morgan. He’s helping Pope. But, then, what Black may really have in mind is passing legislation to stop Pope from launching a new campaign – to talk about Democrat legislators’ stands on issues this fall.

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Normally all we hear about is the partisanship in Congress.  That Democrats and Republicans are totally embittered toward each other.  That they are unable to work together on any issue.

But that changed this week.  Both sides of the aisle rose as one.  They stood together, liberals and conservatives.  They took a brave bipartisan stand against a grave threat to the Republic.

What was it?  Terrorism?  High gas prices?  Global warming?  Hurricane preparedness?

No.

Both parties are enraged that the FBI raided the office of a Congressman accused of taking a bribe.

Now we know what unites Democrats and Republicans.

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The indictment of Kevin Geddings in the lottery scandal has opened a unique window on Democratic politics in North Carolina. There are probably only two dozen Democratic consultants and strategists in North Carolina. They live in a small world. They are friends, acquaintances and rivals. A year ago, many of them were swept up in Governor Easley’s campaign to pass a lottery.

When the State Senate deadlocked, Mac McCorkle, Governor Easley’s chief political advisor, apparently decided to apply a little political strategy. Scott Anderson, another former Easley aide, arranged for the NCAE to run ads in the districts of three wavering Republican Senators. Kevin Geddings – the man who has now been indicted – made the ads. The strategy worked, two of the wavering legislators ‘took a walk’ on the key vote and the lottery passed.

At the same time, Meredith Norris, House Speaker Jim Black’s chief political aide, was also working with Geddings to pass the lottery in the House. And two other Easley aides, Dan Gerlach and Jay Reiff, Easley’s former campaign manager also knew, or had worked with, Geddings. 

Here we have all these political insiders – McCorkle, Anderson, Gerlach, Norris, Geddings –working to pass a lottery. Then it passes and one of them, Geddings, is nominated to serve on the State Lottery Commission. Then he is indicted for failing to tell the Ethics Commission about $228,000 in payments he received from lottery companies.

Why did Geddings hide the payments? It appears he tried to conceal a conflict of interest that would have prevented him from serving on the Commission. To put it plainly, Commissioner Geddings may have intended to be voting on lottery contracts for companies like his client Scientific Games.

Governor Easley and House Speaker Jim Black, who appointed Geddings, both say, adamantly, they had no inkling he was a paid agent of Scientific Games.

But Geddings had a long association with lottery companies. He had been working with Scientific Games since 2002 to pass a lottery in North Carolina. He had promoted lotteries in South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Carolina. Can it be in this small world none of his fellow political insiders knew, or suspected, of his ties to Scientific Games?

Is it likely Meredith Norris worked with Geddings, briefed State Senate Leader Tony Rand – in preparation for a lottery debate – with Geddings, and never even suspected Geddings worked for Scientific Games?

When the News and Observer asked Senator Rand about the briefing he received from Geddings, Rand said bluntly he “assumed Geddings was working for Scientific Games.”   If Tony Rand put one and one together and concluded the lottery vender was paying Geddings, what about Meredith Norris?  What about Governor Easley’s aides? 

In fact, Mac McCorkle’s political antennae twitched when Black appointed Geddings. He told the News and Observer he did not know the full details of Geddings’ involvement with Scientific Games but, “The second I heard that Kevin had been appointed, I was adamantly opposed.”

We don’t know what, if anything, McCorkle told Easley of his concerns. McCorkle refuses to say and the Governor’s office will not comment (News and Observer, 5/20/06). Nor do we know what, if anything, Meredith Norris told Speaker Black. But as the scandal unfolds a lot may hinge on the answers to those questions.

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This one is circulating on the Internet:

Donald Rumsfeld briefed the President this morning. He told Bush that three Brazilian soldiers were killed in Iraq.  To everyone's amazement, all of the color ran from Bush's face. Then he collapsed onto his desk, head in hands, visibly shaken, almost whimpering. 

Finally, he composed himself and asked Rumsfeld, "Just exactly how many is a brazillion? 

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Last week on this blog, Carter did that voodoo he does so well: attack tax-and-spend Democrats.  His target was Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker

Here was the money punch:

“From 1992 to 2001, under Republican mayors, Raleigh never raised property taxes. Now, under Mayor Meeker we are staring at the second tax increase in three years. What’s driving all these tax increases?

 “Well, in Raleigh, city government has gone on an unbridled spending spree. Under Mayor Meeker the City Council is spending money like there is no tomorrow.”

Now, Carter got that first Republican mayor (Tom Fetzer) elected.  So Democrats should pay attention.  That dog can hunt.

We can outfox that old dog.  But here is how not to do it:

• Look like an elitist who cares only about downtown and sneers at the suburbs;

• Spend millions of taxpayers’ dollars on projects that look like foolish follies in a 30-second ad – let alone a close examination.

• Spend the money on projects like a $20 million subsidy to the Marriot family to build a downtown hotel, a billion-dollar rail system that even the federal government won’t fund and ever-rising costs for the convention center and parking deck.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of Raleigh Democrats want to go.

Democrats should never lose a Raleigh election.  Fifty percent of the voters are registered Democrats, and only 35 percent are Republicans.

That’s why John Odom’s at-large campaign flopped last year.  He ran a turn-out-the-base campaign.  But turnout campaigns don’t work when you’ve got only 35 percent of the vote.

Democrats are just as clueless if they think voter registration – and impact fees – are the automatic keys to City Hall.

Private polls last year showed unease about the Mayor’s spending policies.  Fortunately, Meeker didn’t have an opponent who could take advantage.

Don't count on being lucky next time.  Hope is not a strategy.

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Do I sound like a typical carping little liberal?

Well, how about Laura Bush, Dick Cheney and Cheney’s daughter Mary?

Over the past few weeks:

• Laura Bush called on Republicans not to use the Family Marriage Amendment as an issue;

• Mary Cheney wrote about her anguish as a gay Republican;

• She described her father’s reaction when she came out: “You’re my daughter.  I love you and I want you to be happy;”

• Karl Rove – in desperate rescue mode – throws gay-soline onto Christian Right fires.

In other words, the President ignores decent advice from two of the people closest to him to save his political hide.

Who woulda thunk Darth Cheney would be the liberal here.

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You have to give Jim Black credit he doesn’t scare easy or at all.

Earlier this year, Speaker Black, his optometrist allies and his video poker supporters testified at State Board of Elections hearings investigating allegations of corruption growing out of the ‘pay to play’ scandals. There were revelations of blank checks (without the recipients names filed in) to politicians, convenience store clerks contributing thousands of dollars (of what sounded like other people’s money) to politicians and during the hearings a former legislative ally of Black’s took the Fifth Amendment.

Now the legislature’s back in town and in the blink of an eye Senate Leader Marc Basnight sent two fastballs whizzing by the heads of Black and his colleagues in the House. The Senators voted to ban video poker and to repeal the law Black sponsored to require children to have eye exams before entering school. This puts the Senate nose to nose with Black and his House allies. Black has been the Legislature’s leading supporter of video poker. And he passed the eye exam requirement, critics say, for his optometrist allies.

What happened when the Senate voted thumbs down on two of Black’s pet projects? Black didn’t blink.

He announced he was willing to allow children to start school before they get their eye exams – instead of before. But added, as an optometrist himself, he knew more about the importance of eye exams for school children than anyone else in the Legislature. The requirement stays.

He also, in effect, pocket vetoed the Senate video poker ban by sending it to a House Committee instead of bringing it to a vote. The ban may see the light of day later but don’t bet on it.

This seems to say two interesting things. First, as far as the ‘pay to play’ scandals go, Black doesn’t think there’s much of a scandal, at least politically. He’s not about to back off helping his allies with legislation.

Second, the Senate disagrees with Black. The Senate does seem to have gotten the message that – ‘pay to play’ – is a political liability. In the end, the Senators may not be willing to make real reforms. But by ‘goring’ two of Black’s pet projects they’re sending a message that makes it look like they’re willing to try to clean up the mess.

This poses a new problem for Black. He’s been getting plenty of criticism from the Republicans and the press about ‘pay to play.’ Now, he’s getting it from the Democrats in the Senate too. And he has to block these efforts at ethics reform in the legislature.

Speaker Black may be so powerful this new opposition doesn’t matter. But, then again, he seems to be taking on a lot of unpopular fights to keep on doing business as usual.

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Wake County School Superintendent Bill McNeal told the News and Observer, (5/16/06) he could never recommend a measly $625 million School Bond. McNeal said he couldn’t put kids in schools with adequate heating, air-conditioning and a roof that doesn’t leak for $625 million.

Huh?

The superintendent is saying if he doesn’t get a billion dollar School Bond children are going to be sitting in classrooms freezing in the winter, burning up in the summer and with buckets on the floor to catch the rain from the leaky roof when there is a storm.

If that’s true – if Bill McNeal is telling the cold hard truth and not practicing a little political hyperbole – I don’t think the people of Wake County would deny him his billion dollars.

But is it true that $625 million means kids will be sitting in classrooms where the roof leaks? Either the School Board or the County Commissioners should ask McNeal to prove it. If he does voters will probably be inclined to pass his bonds.

But he does not – well, what do you do with a School Superintendent who engages in political hyperbole to frighten people to raise taxes?

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Under Muammar Qaddafi, Libya bombed a West German discotheque and blew up a Pan Am jetliner over Lockerbie, Scotland and killed 270 people. In March, the United States included Libya on the list of nations that are state sponsors of terrorism.

Now, suddenly, all that has changed.

The Bush Administration has taken Libya off the list of terrorist nations and we’re re-establishing full diplomatic ties with Tripoli. The State Department says Libya has “destroyed its chemical weapons stockpiles and dismantled a secret nuclear weapons program.” (International Herald Tribune, 5/16/06). Which sounds impressive.

But consider this.

Mustapha Zaidi, one of Colonel Qaddafi’s spokesmen, greeted the State Department’s announcement by saying, “We encourage America on the path of cooperation and we hope we will cooperate together through cultural debate to spread democracy around the world together.”

Now, does anyone really think Colonel Qaddafi is serious when he says he wants to spread democracy?

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This is from Charles Sanders, chairman of the North Carolina Lottery Commission – and one of the most honest and capable people in North Carolina. 

He was talking about indicted former commissioner Kevin Geddings, but could have been talking about a lot of people in politics today:

"I don't understand how people like that get up in the morning and look themselves in the mirror, quite honestly."

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The News and Observer and WRAL-TV polled to find out if the taxpayers would support a $625 million school bond (with no tax increase), a $998 million bond (with a tax increase) or a $1.15 billion bond (with an even bigger tax increase).

1.  Voters opposed the $1.15 billion bond (with the biggest tax increase) 57% to 33%. Republicans and Independents opposed it overwhelmingly. Democrats were split. Parents with children in public schools opposed it 55% to 30%.

2.  Voters also opposed the $998 million bond with a smaller tax increase: 59% to 27%. Democrats opposed it, Republicans opposed it, Independents opposed it.

3.  Voters – overwhelmingly – supported a $625 million bond with no tax increase: 64% to 28%. Democrats, Republicans and Independents all favored it overwhelmingly, as did parents with children in public schools.

4.  Voters also opposed increasing taxes on new homes (58% to 29%), a real estate transfer tax (56% to 37%) and a sales tax increase (46% to 42%).

Supporters of the taxes say, well, once we educate the voters that will change. But, in fact, the opposite seems to be happening. There have been three polls in recent months on the school bonds and it seems the more voters learn about the bonds – the more opposition to higher taxes increases.

It would appear voters feel they are educated now and that they have made up their minds.

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They have no idea how little confidence the public has in them now.

The representatives passed a new ethics law, but did everything they could to protect themselves against any real change in how they do business.

According to Dan Kane of The News & Observer:

“House members voted for the revised law 114-3. But that was only after spending most of a three-hour debate watering down the bill and trying to make sure they would not be falsely accused of ethics violations.”

www.newsobserver.com/114/story/440857.html

(They should worry instead about being accurately accused of watering down ethics regulations.)

Worse, Kane reported:

“The House bill would allow legislators to continue policing their own ethics.”

(That will give people confidence!)

The members also prescribed less stringent rules for themselves than for executive branch employees. 

“In the executive branch bill, gifts worth more than $200 from non-family members, or more than $100 from anyone who does business with the state, would have to be reported. The amended bill for lawmakers would raise that to gifts of more than $1,000 and more than $500, respectively.”

(It must cost more to buy friends in the legislative branch.)

Fortunately for the Democrats, Republicans also voted for the weaker restrictions.  Otherwise, we could count on losing our majority this fall.

But any incumbent who has real opposition in November may have dug themselves a deep hole.  If I were their opponent, this would be my issue.

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I’ve not often had a kind word to say about Senate Democratic Majority Leader Tony Rand. I do today.

It seems hard to believe but House Speaker Jim Black has made Rand, the man who removed the crosses and Bibles from the Senate Chapel, look like a paragon of public virtue when it comes to ethics reform.

The fight on Ethics Reform in the State House boils down to this: Who is going to be the policeman? Who will enforce the rules, decide when they are broken and mete-out the punishment?

The House says the policeman should be, well, the House. Which, in effect, means Jim Black because Black, as Speaker, has iron-fist control of the House.

Of course, that makes a mockery of ethics reform because Black, the policeman, is one whose ethics – in the ‘pay to play’ scandals – are the issue.

Senator Rand, to his credit, is preparing Senate legislation that would set up an independent ethics committee to be the policeman over the House and Senate. We don’t know the details of Rand’s plan but that certainly beats putting the fox in charge of the hen house.

So, here’s a good word for Tony Rand.

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Here’s the State House version of Ethics Reform: Members can take secretly ‘gifts’ of up to $500 from people seeking favorable legislation. They can take bigger gifts if they report them.

Hard to believe?

Democrat Representative Verla Insko, who voted against the secret gifts said “she didn’t like the thought of being able to keep secrets gifts worth $499 from people seeking favorable legislation.” (News and Observer, 5/18/06)

Representative Drew Saunders, another Democrat who voted for them disagreed. Saunders said: “Even the baby Jesus accepted gifts, and I don’t think it corrupted him.” Now, if Representative Saunders were the baby Jesus we wouldn’t be worried about him being corrupted. But the problem is he’s not.

Here’s one more amazing fact. The corruption – under Democratic leadership – in the State House is a major issue Republicans should be speaking out on. What did they do? They lined up in a phalanx and voted for Jim Black’s version of ethics reform. Which, as Gary says in his blog, is certainly good news for the Democrats.

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I asked a retired friend, who occasionally serves as a substitute teacher, why the School Board was determined to push for a tax increase when three independent polls show it losing overwhelmingly.

He told me an interesting story about the dress code in the Wake County Schools. He said students ignore the dress code and administrators do nothing about it.

I said: Why?

He said: Because if they send the kids home for being dressed improperly the parents get mad and complain to the School Board.

He added: The School Board is afraid of the parents, the Administrators are afraid of the Board and the kids aren’t afraid of anyone.

Two hundred and fifty parents who oppose year-round schools – so students don’t lose their summer vacations – showed up at the School Board meeting Tuesday, demanded higher school taxes so there will be fewer new year-round schools. The Board promptly voted to spend another $58 million to satisfy them. That’s an average of $230,000 per parent present. Which has to make that one of the more successful demonstrations in history.

Two hundred and fifty parents may have looked like a ground swell of support to the School Board. But the parents and the School Board needed to understand that all of the polls about school bonds say one thing.

Every bond tested that includes a tax increase loses.

Most taxpayers in Wake County – roughly two-thirds of the people – don’t have children in public schools.

They are perfectly willing to support the schools with their tax money. But they also think it is reasonable to save $400 million by Wake County going to more year-round schools. In other words, it doesn’t make sense to spend $400 million so schools can sit vacant three months out of the year.

Doubtless, some parents view having to plan vacations during the three week breaks students get each quarter in year-round schools – rather than over the summer – as an inconvenience. No doubt it is.

But weigh that against the inconvenience of Wake County citizens paying $400 million in higher property taxes.

Politically, the School Board and the County Commissioners are between a rock and a hard place. Whatever they do they are going to make someone mad.

What those polls are saying loud and clear is they are going to make a lot more people mad – 64% of the people – by raising taxes to protect summer vacations.

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Wake County Manager David Cooke wants to increase property taxes three cents. The way the politicians describe this type of tax increase, they say it’s “only” a $45 increase on a $150,000 home. Let’s look a little closer.

On top of Mr. Cooke’s three-cent tax hike, the Wake County Board of Education wants a 3.9 cent increase to pay for new school bonds.

That’s a total increase of 6.9 cents in property taxes. The current Wake County property tax rate is 60.4 cents. If these new taxes pass the rate will go to 67.3 cents – that’s an 11% tax increase in one year.

If you live in the city of Raleigh, the news is worse. City Manager Russell Allen wants to increase city property taxes four cents – so he can increase city spending 11%. He also wants to raise water and sewer rates 9%. And the City Council has already raised taxes on new homes 78%. And you’re still going to get hit with the school bond tax.

The City’s current property tax rate is 43.5 cents. A four cent increase, plus a 3.9 cents school tax, will raise it to 51.4 cents – a whopping 18% increase.

From 1992 to 2001, under Republican mayors, Raleigh never raised property taxes. Now, under Mayor Meeker we are staring at the second tax increase in three years. What’s driving all these tax increases?

Well, in Raleigh, city government has gone on an unbridled spending spree. Under Mayor Meeker the City Council is spending money like there is no tomorrow.

And the Mayor has the votes on the Council to go right on spending. He has two almost certain allies in Russell Stephenson and Thomas Crowder. And he has three less certain but friendly allies in Democrats James West, Joyce Kekas and Jessie Taliaferro.

The city has built, is building, or is funding a $215 million Convention Center, a $40 million underground parking deck, a $20 million Marriott Hotel, a million dollar downtown restaurant and upscale supermarket. The list goes on and on.

Even the Republicans have voted for parts of this spending.

In a way, you can’t really fault Charles Meeker. He seems to want to spend every penny he can lay his hands on, but he never said he’d do anything else.

The problem is the muted response of the Republicans. What happened to the days when there were Republican leaders like Tom Fetzer who spoke out against unbridled spending? Fetzer stopped a $90 million Convention Center dead in its tracks by rallying voters. Many of the new crop of Republican leaders actually voted for a Convention Center that cost twice that much.

It’s time Republicans stopped being rubber stamps to Charles Meeker and started saying no.

They may – and almost certainly will – lose a lot of votes in the City Council. They will make other Council members mad. But they may also make a lot of people – like the 64% of the voters who oppose raising taxes for school bonds – happy. And they may give them something they don’t have now – a good reason to vote for Republicans next year in the elections.

There are already encouraging signs. Republican Councilman Phil Isley recently proposed to cut funding for one of Mayor Meeker’s pet projects – the Triangle Transit Authority’s lite-rail boondoggle – rather than raise taxes.

It’s up to the Republicans to make Mayor Meeker’s spending spree – and his tax increases – an issue in the next election. No one else will do it.

They should start now.

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President Bush’s immigration speech showed just how far he has fallen.

And it happened when – in my opinion – he actually is trying to do the right thing.  (There, that’s my nod to bipartisanship this week.)

On gay rights, Bush is the monkey to the right-wing organ grinders.  Even though Laura disagrees – publicly!

On immigration, Bush actually has the instinct to stand up to the talk radio blowhards.

But he doesn’t have the political heft to do it.

Instead, he spends most of his speech begging the right-wingers to please believe that he’s not for “amnesty.”

Amnesty, by the way, has been a political poison pill since Nixon’s CREEP fed it to McGovern in 1972: “Acid, Amnesty and Abortion.”

Bush had to grovel even more.  He had to promise to call out the National Guard, which is already so overstretched in Iraq it couldn’t help Katrina victims.

The most bitter pill of all: About the only kind words for Bush – “courageous” – came from Ted Kennedy.

Bush’s ratings are falling faster than the stock market is rising.

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WRAL-TV and The News and Observer have taken a poll on the Wake County School Bonds. They found voters:

• Favored a $625 million bond with no tax increase              64% to 28%

• Opposed a $998 million bond with a tax increase                59% to 27%

• Opposed a $1.15 billion bond with a bigger tax increase     57% to 35%

The School Board’s conclusion is puzzling. Initially, some of the Board members argued the poll meant they should abandon the $998 million bond they’d been pushing (which 59% of the people opposed) – to go for the bigger $1.15 billion bond (with the bigger tax) because only 57% of the people oppose it. In the end, the Board voted to ‘compromise’ and spend $1.06 billion.

If this is what passes for ‘logic’ on the school board we have got bigger problems than a building shortfall.

Who knows why 2% fewer people opposed the bond with the higher tax? Maybe the explanation is a handful of parents – who oppose more year-round schools – want the bigger bond regardless of how much it costs.

But that isn’t the point. The point – the School Board seems unable to get – is that 64% of the voters in Wake County don’t want any tax increase at all. Each of the three independent polls on the Schools Bonds showed any bond including a tax increase losing decisively.

It would seem the Board had a clear choice – accept a bond to increase spending $625 million without a tax increase. Or go for a new tax and lose at the polls. It decided to go for the tax.

Let us hope the School Board understands more about education than it does about polling.

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Us Southern Democrats have worried a long time about being totally abandoned by the national party.  This election could accelerate that trend.

Especially if Democrats win control of the U.S. House by knocking off vulnerable Republicans in the Northeast.

Various reports show that districts won by John Kerry – but that still have GOP congressmen – are prime Democratic targets this year.

A lot of non-Southern Democrats believe that it’s time to forget the South and focus on the coasts and the industrial Midwest.

And it won’t help if we lose the state House this year. 

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Governor Easley’s sneaky streak breaks out every now and then. To hear the Governor tell it he’s going to do two things with the State’s $2 billion surplus: increase some needed spending and cut taxes.

What’s sneaky – and what he’s not talking about much – is that his tax cut is only a fraction of spending increases.

In fact, the Governor’s ‘tax-cut’ is more like a political fig-leaf than a tax cut. But it’s served its purpose, politically. The Governor’s reaped a windfall of newspaper articles saying he’s going to cut taxes.

The Governor’s also been telling voters for years he favors a ‘cap’ to limit state spending increases to 6% a year. But this year, for the first time in a long time, the State has a huge budget surplus. So, the Governor wants to increase spending a whooping 10.6%. As a result, his sneaky streak broke out again.

Governor Easley says – with a straight face – he still has his ‘spending cap’ in place – but, he adds, there are just a few items in the budget that are exempt. Like teacher salaries. Whoops! That’s one whopping big part of the budget he just exempted from his cap.

Now, whether we should raise teacher salaries more than 6% isn’t the point. The point is there isn’t really a spending cap and it’s misleading for the Governor to claim there is.

The Republicans in the legislature are now beginning to debate the Governor’s ‘tax cut’ and his ‘spending cap.’ The Governor is trying to mislead voters by calling a fig-leaf a tax cut and a ‘spending limit’ he has punched full of holes a ‘cap.’ Ridicule is a powerful political weapon. The Republicans in the legislature should use it.

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Congressman Brad Miller’s opponent, Vernon Robinson, last week sent out one of the wildest, most over-the-top, most clever, most irresponsible, most expensive and – I hope – least effective mailings I’ve ever seen.

And I thought nobody could top the stuff Carter and the Congressional Club used to send out about Jim Hunt.

Now, Brad should win reelection.  He’s in a Democratic district that he drew up, for Pete’s sake. 

And all the Democratic geniuses say this is our year, with Bush’s approval ratings going down as fast as Iraq casualties increase.

But you have to worry about an opponent who packs into one mailing:

• “Homosexual marriage”

• “Flag burning” and a “handgun ban”

• “An open border” and “amnesty” for illegal aliens

• “A San Francisco Soul Mate”

• “Negative character assassination”

• Even the Tuskegee Airmen.

I admit I read every word of it.  All eight tightly printed pages.  I couldn’t help it.  It was hypnotizing, like watching a snake.

But here is what really disturbed me: that Robinson served as an Air Force “Missile Combat Crew Commander.” 

I’m surprised we didn’t all get blown up.

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In 2000, George and Jeb Bush relied on Katherine Harris, Florida’s Secretary of State, to recapture the White House for the Bush family.

That made Katherine a hero with Republicans and anathema to Democrats.  She rode the notoriety right into the U.S. Senate race in Florida this year.

But her behavior has been so wacky she is fast becoming the Paula Abdul of American politics.

In fact, she may cost Republicans a chance to beat Democratic Senator Bill Nelson.

Jeb Bush is now desperately hunting for another Republican candidate.  And W kept his distance from the Woman Who Made Him President during a campaign stop this week.

I say they deserve this one.

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Few would argue (with the exception of the members of the House Democratic Caucus) with the proposition that Jim Black, after a year of ‘pay to play’ scandals, is now the most unpopular man in North Carolina. A series of hearings, investigations, and exposes has left the heretofore sure-footed House Leader battered and bruised.

But don’t despair.

The wiley Democrats have a solution: Art Pope.

The Democrats are going to make Pope the most unpopular man in North Carolina – on the theory that when they do voters are going to forget all about Jim Black.

Look for State House hearings to investigate Pope and the ‘millions’ he’s spending on politics. Look for Pope, his friends, the heads of the different conservative organizations he funds (the Locke Foundation and Republican Legislature Majority Committee) and a bevy of political consultants to be called to testify. Look for a lot of digging into Pope’s company, Variety Wholesalers, Inc.

Look for a State Board of Elections hearings where Pope is treated with the same respect as a video poker operator or an optometrist taking the Fifth.

Then in the fall, as Republicans rev-up their campaign denouncing Black, look for a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth about millionaires buying elections as the Democrats answer them by denouncing Pope.

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Scientists at the University of Chicago and the University of California have reached a startling conclusion. A woman can tell a man’s testosterone level, whether he’s a one night stand or a potential husband, and how much he likes infants by simply looking at his photograph.

After the scientist showed a battery of young women photographs of various men, Professor James Roney concluded “the women were surprisingly adept in being able to read subtle sexual signals.” He added: “Our data suggests that women are picking up on facial clues that may be related to paternal qualities.” Or the lack of them.

Professor David Maestripieri added, “Our study shows that women don’t just look for masculinity; they also see cues for interest in infants, and they’re very accurate in judging both.” Just by looking at a photograph.

They didn’t even bother to try the same test on men.

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Elizabeth Dole has been virtually invisible since she was elected.  (In case you forgot, she is North Carolina’s senior United States Senator.)

She may wish she were invisible after this year’s elections are over.

Senator Dole is being panned for her performance as Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.  So is her staff, including Executive Director Mark Stephens of North Carolina.

I don’t know Senator Dole or Mark well.  But I respect their obvious political abilities.  And I learned long ago that success or failure as a political operative rest largely on the fortunes of timing and the foibles of candidates, neither of which you can control.

Right now, things don’t look good for Republican Senate candidates.  In fact, Liddy and Mark could end up presiding over the GOP’s loss of the Senate.

I detect a whiff of desperation in a fundraising appeal Mark signed recently.  One newspaper quoted his “apocalyptic predictions should the Democrats become the majority party:”

"They want nothing more than to create a three-ring political circus they know will get favorable coverage from the liberal media so that they can discredit, and then undo the Bush tax cuts and other important elements of the Bush agenda.

"And it's even likely that Democrats - should they take over the House and Senate - will try to impeach President Bush."

Ah well, as Hunter Thompson used to say: When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.

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Democrats in the State House Committee say they want to ban political contributions from lobbyists to legislators. That’s fine. But don’t be deceived. They are not trying to end ‘pay to play.’ In fact, what they are doing will hardly slow Marc Basnight or Jim Black down at all.

The House Democrats are being clever. It may look to the press and the public like they are taking steps to clean up the scandals in the State Legislature. But they are really doing very little at all. The essence of ‘pay to play’ is swapping political favors for campaign contributions. Banning contributions from lobbyists is a step in the right direction. But, lobbyists are not the main source of ‘pay to play’ contributions. Most of those contributions are made by people or corporations (through executives and PACs) who hire lobbyists. 

Banning donations from lobbyists will eliminate the middleman. But the lobbyist’s employer can go right on making ‘pay to play’ contributions. And, Marc Basnight and Jim Black will have no problem finding these people to solicit them. All they have to do is look at each lobbyist’s list of clients.

State Treasurer Richard Moore has solicited over a hundred thousand dollars in contributions for his campaign for Governor from people and groups associated with financial corporations he has hired to manage the state’s $65 billion pension fund. This proposal will do nothing to stop Moore – and other Democratic politicians – from soliciting these kinds of ‘pay to play’ donations. 

Banning lobbyists’ contributions will change the mechanics of ‘pay to play.’ But it will not stop it. To do that legislators must go a step further. They must stop legislators taking contributions from the people – or groups – who hire the lobbyists.

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The Democratic Party is undergoing one of its periodic paroxysms of soul-searching.

It’s not a pretty sight.

The soul-searching has long been bubbling in the blogs.  It bubbled onto the front page of The New York Times this week.

But it’s nothing new.  The same battle has been going on between Liberal Democrats and Not-So-Liberal Democrats for years.

This time it’s been brewing since 1992, when Bill Clinton beat the True Liberal-Jesse Jackson wing of the party and won the White House.  That brought an eight-year truce.

But now, out of the White House since 2000 and in the congressional minority even longer, Democrats are redrawing the lines and resuming fire.

The bloggers and Real Liberals say the answer is simple:

• Off with the heads of the consultant class, whom they blame for the defeats of Al Gore and John Kerry;

• Out with the centrist, “cautious” New Democrat approach of Bill (and Hillary) Clinton;

• Stand up for our “real beliefs” and stop worrying about whether the voters agree with us, because they’ll admire us for standing behind our principles.

Problem is, what are those real beliefs?

Raise taxes?  Or cut taxes, as Governor Easley has proposed here and Washington Democrats have proposed on the gas tax?

Pull out of Iraq yesterday?  Or withdraw more slowly?

There is no agreement.  Democrats, unlike Republicans, do not march in lockstep on issues like taxes and foreign policy.

So, as always, we will argue about it this year.  As always, each Senate and House candidate will chart his or her own course – on the campaign trail and (if elected) in Washington.

As always, the resolution will not come until the 2008 Presidential-nomination battle.  Either Hillary Clinton will win, or a “Real Democrat” will.  Just like McGovern vs. Jackson in 1972, Carter vs. Udall in 1976, Carter vs. Kennedy in 1980, Mondale vs. Hart in 1984, Dukakis vs. all others in 1988, Clinton vs. Tsongas/Brown in 1992 and Kerry vs. Dean in 2004.

If the Democratic nominee wins the White House, the battle will largely subside.

If she (or he) loses, Democrats will once against form up a firing squad in a circle.

It’s what we are best at.

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There’s a difference in Art Pope spending ‘his millions’ and how the Black/Basnight Political Machines continue to hold an iron-grip on the North Carolina Legislature.

Pope is spending his own money. What he is doing does not cost taxpayers a cent. He’s not trying to get a state contract or a bill passed to help his business; he’s spending his own money to advocate his political beliefs. You may not agree with those beliefs but he had every right to speak out for them.

On the other hand, Marc Basnight and Jim Black fund their political machines with contributions from people who do want state contracts. And legislation. And appointments. And state jobs. That’s called ‘pay to play;’ trading political favors for campaign contributions.

The big difference between what Pope is doing and what the Machines are doing is when Basnight or Black raise a thousand dollars there’s no telling how much it may have cost taxpayers.

I expect it is safe to assume that the Democratic legislature is going to try to stop Pope by passing new election laws before the Fall Election. And, that instead of ending ‘pay to play,’ they are going to make a few cosmetic changes and go right on swapping political favors for campaign contributions.

But if the Democrats in North Carolina want to stop Art Pope, instead of silencing him, they should out-debate him. They can do everything he is doing. There is nothing he is doing that the law does not allow them to do too.

Why won’t they?

The Machines thrive on secrecy. They prosper by operating quietly in the warrens and backrooms of the legislature. The last thing they want is a debate about what they are doing in those backrooms.

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It will be Art Pope’s millions against the Basnight/Black “machines” this fall.

That is, unless Speaker Jim Black’s train derails because of bad publicity and threatening investigations.

The legislative races will be a contest between two different ways of raising the big chunks of cash it takes to win a majority in the State Senate and House.

The News & Observer published a three-part series this weekend about how Democratic leaders Black and Senator Marc Basnight pay the freight.  Essentially, anybody with an issue before the legislature pays.  Lobbyists do double duty: they pay and collect.

Pope has a different model.  First, find a path through the maze of campaign-finance laws.  Then pump through enough corporate dollars to win elections.

My colleague Carter believes that what Pope is doing is legal.  My old friend Michael Weisel believes otherwise.  Weisel is attorney for Rep. Richard Morgan, who filed a complaint with the State Board of Elections challenging Pope’s ploy.

The money explains why House Democrats are standing by Jim Black, so far.  They don’t see anybody else in their caucus who can raise the money to fight Pope.  And they know that – nearly all the time – the richest campaign wins.

Democrats fear that if Pope’s Republicans get a majority this year, they’ll stay in the majority for years to come.  Once in, they’ll just adopt the Black/Basnight fundraising strategy.

Republicans had a majority from 1994-1998.  But they lost it because of their own infighting, an aggressive campaign led by Black and then-Governor Jim Hunt, and a political climate so favorable to Democrats it pushed John Edwards to an upset over Lauch Faircloth.

I wouldn’t count on that happening again.

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A San Francisco developer was hired to manage $260 million in pension funds.  Executives in his company raised $18,000 for Moore.

Moore says, in his defense, “It would be incredibly shortsighted of me to make investment decisions based on political favoritism…”

But his political consultant, Jay Reiff, was more blunt.  Reiff said Moore is doing nothing other candidates are not doing.  “Every serious candidate for state office, including Gov. Easley, Lt. Gov. Perdue and Attorney General Cooper, has received contributions from individuals that do business with the state.”

 He added that Dave Horne, one of Governor Easley’s fundraisers and his campaign treasurer was a lobbyist for EDS, a major state contractor.  And that one of Attorney General Ray Cooper’s fundraisers is Brad Wilson of Blue Cross & Blue Shield.

It sounds like to Mr. Moore’s political advisor there’s not one thing wrong with ‘pay to play.’ It’s a fact of life.  Everyone does it.

He may well be right as far as the other Democratic candidates for Governor go.

Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue, the head of the State Senate, has her own collection of lobbyists to give and raise money for her, including Zeb Alley and former John Edwards’ manager Ed Turlington.

So, is it likely any of the Democrat candidates for Governor will put an end to ‘pay to play?”

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The USA Today/Gallup poll now shows George Bush at a 31 percent approval rating.  Nearly two-thirds of Americans – 65 percent – approve of the job he’s doing.

I think he is basically down now to the total viewership of Fox News.

According to USA Today:

Only four presidents have scored lower approval ratings since the Gallup Poll began regularly measuring it in the mid-1940s: Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter and the first George Bush. When Nixon, Carter and the elder Bush sank below 35%, they never again registered above 40%.

Truman twice sank into the low 30s and then rose into the 60s, but the third time his rating fell, it stayed below 40% as well.

One of this blog’s readers emailed an excellent suggestion: The legislature should ban video poker.  And Democrats should lead the charge.

The reader sent along a link to this Fayetteville Observer editorial calling for a ban.

http://www.fayettevillenc.com/article?id=232345

But my suggestion is not about public policy.  It’s all about politics.

I fear a perfect storm this fall that costs Democrats the House – and seats in the Senate.

The storm could rise out of a confluence of bad news: Speaker Black’s troubles, various investigations, continued publicity about money and politics and an energized Republican opposition (fueled by Art Pope’s money).

The time to start tacking away from the storm is now.  The first move – in the legislative session that starts Tuesday – should be to cast video poker overboard.

When the state had to bid an $18 million contract to purchase office supplies, it hired the consulting company Accenture and paid them $300,000 to evaluate the bids.

However, according to the News and Observer, Accenture, the state’s consultant, has also been paid millions of dollars by Office Depot (for work unrelated to North Carolina).

Want to guess who ended up with the North Carolina contract Accenture evaluated? Office Depot.

Accenture was also the state’s consultant when it awarded the multi-billion dollar State Health Care Plan’s Pharmacy Benefits Management Contract. At that time, Accenture had been criticized – in other states – for doing exactly what has happened here on the contract awarded to Office Depot. For advising state agencies to award contracts to corporations that were Accenture’s clients.

Now, the News and Observer reports, a state judge has ruled the Office Depot contract was awarded improperly. Judge Beecher Gray said, “What I see here is an appearance of impropriety.”

Why would the state hire a company which had Office Depot as a client – to help evaluate an $18 million contract Office Depot was bidding on? Perhaps what the newspapers have discovered is another new version of ‘pay to play.’

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They accused Eddins and three other Republican legislators of selling out Republicans by giving Democrats control of the State House (when they elected Morgan and Black Co-Speakers). But they ignored that they had tried to make their own deal to share power with Black.

Pope’s group attacked Representative Robert Grady, saying he was a Democrat masquerading as a Republican. When a reporter asked Grady to comment, Grady sighed and said he’d done his best to get along with both factions but it was like dealing with two sides of a messy divorce. It was just impossible.

Robert Grady may not have agreed with Art Pope and Leo Daughtry in 2003 about who should lead Republicans in the House – but he is no Democrat. But, then, just when it looked like Pope’s allies had gone too far, Richard Morgan threw a mudball of his own. He filed a complaint with the State Board of Elections alleging Art Pope had violated State Law by making hundreds of thousands of dollars in illegal corporate political contributions.

Morgan’s charge was untrue; and it was also hypocritical. Two years before, Morgan had done the same thing he accused Pope of doing. He had set up his own ‘issue advocacy’ group, funded it with corporate money and used it to attack his opponents.

Several years ago, I advised another group that ran issue ads critical of Richard Morgan. Morgan promptly filed a complaint with the State Board of Elections to stop their ads too, and, as a result, I got a hands on in court education on how the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States works. And it’s a pretty great thing.

The Elections Board sided with Morgan and ruled the ads the group were running had to stop. But the federal courts overturned the Board’s ruling hands down. This election, Morgan tried to do exactly the same thing to Art Pope. He asked the State Board to stop Pope from running ads.

The Courts have established a very clear standard defining what an issues advocacy group can say in politics and political campaigns. They cannot urge people to vote for or against a candidate. But they can say anything they want to criticize or praise a candidate’s stand on an issue.

If it sounds odd that the Courts allow people to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to criticize a candidate on an issue just before an election, they had a clear reason to do that. The purpose of the First Amendment is to allow the maximum of free speech and political debate. The Courts drew a line in the sand to do that. To give us the most debate. Not half the most. Not the least. The most.

What Richard Morgan wants to do is move that line. He argues the fact that Pope’s ads are about issues doesn’t matter. He says that what does matter is why Pope ran those ads. And he says the reason is simple: to defeat him in his election.

But, when it comes to freedom of speech the Courts don’t, and shouldn’t, care about Art Pope’s – or anyone else’s – motives. They care about is what they say.

If we let Boards of Elections or political figures determine what people can – or cannot – say in a political debate based on their motives we open a Pandora’s Box. Because every politician who wants to silence an opponent can attack their motives.

The American political system of free debate is messy. Candidates lie, dissemble, smear their opponents and mislead voters. But the solution we have chosen is to give the victims of those attacks the same right to answer them and set the record straight.

Art Pope’s issue ads did one important thing. They created a debate inside the Republican Party about Morgan’s leadership. Morgan felt what Pope said about his leadership was wrong, but his remedy is to answer Pope – not to stop him from speaking out.

Gary may be right – as he wrote when Morgan filed his complaint – the Board of Elections may agree with Morgan. Their goal is to enforce the State Election Laws – not to maximize free speech. From their point of view the Courts exempting issue advocacy groups like – Art Pope’s – from their control makes their mission more difficult. But the sanctity of the First Amendment matters more than the Board’s regulations.

Pope and his allies ran ads criticizing five Republicans. One of them, Julia Howard, won by default when the Elections Board ruled her opponent did not live in her district. Another, Robert Grady, won reelection with almost 70% of the vote. A third, Rick Eddins, lost by almost 2 to 1. Another, Steven LaRogue, lost by seven votes. And Richard Morgan was defeated 52% to 48%.

What will happen to the two feuding factions now that Morgan will not be returning to the House? Without Morgan will his faction fragment or will a new leader emerge? Who will emerge as the leader of Pope’s faction inside the House?

The next Chapter will begin when the legislature convenes later this month. We’ll see what happens.

Has there ever been more convincing proof that Senator Bill Frist belongs in an operating room, not the White House?

In fairness, Washington Democrats aren’t much better.

Since I whacked Bill Graham for proposing to cut North Carolina’s gas tax, I owe the Democrats in Washington a whack for proposing the same thing nationally.

Two reasons:

• How are they going up to pay for building and maintaining highways?

• Why on earth do Democrats want to encourage people to use more gas and give more power to oil-producing countries?

A good way for Republicans to get a head start on the next Mayor’s race is to start making Mayor Charles Meeker’s runaway spending an issue. Now.

On top of proposing to raise taxes on new homes, and raising property taxes to pay for a school bonds and raising property taxes two years ago, the City Council now is talking about raising property taxes again to pay for more spending.

Right now, the City wants to spend $11 million more that it has, for items like:

• Six new policemen for a downtown foot and bicycle patrol;
• $150,000 for daily cleaning of Fayetteville Street, along with quarterly pressure washing;
• And, $100,000 for an observation platform to monitor outdoor events downtown.

Republican Councilman Philip Isley has proposed shifting federal money from the regional lite-rail system to schools and roads as an alternative to more borrowing and higher taxes.

But lite-rail is one of Mayor Meeker’s pet projects. The Mayor has increased spending to pay for a downtown hotel, a five-star restaurant, an upscale supermarket and a $40 million dollar underground parking garage. Now he wants more spending and higher taxes to pay for it.

The City Council is spending money like a sailor on a spree. It’s time Republicans offered voters an alternative.

After he was elected Co-Speaker, Richard Morgan took Leo Daughtry out of his district and put him in a district with Republican Representative Billy Creech. He did the same thing with three other Republicans who had opposed him. And he moved four other Republicans into districts that favored Democrats (where they were later defeated).

Then Morgan announced he was targeting several additional Republicans who had opposed him in their primaries.

As Co-Speaker, Morgan was, politically, in a much stronger position than his opponents. He could raise the money to fund campaigns to defeat his opponents – and no individual legislator could match him. One major reason he failed was former State Representative Art Pope.

Before the 2004 primaries, Pope endorsed the legislators Morgan targeted for defeat. Then he – and members of his family – contributed to their campaigns. Then, along with several other Daughtry supporters, Pope set up a ‘527’ group – an ‘issues advocacy group – and helped fund it with $400,000 of his own money. Then the group began running ads criticizing Morgan’s supporters – and Morgan – in their districts. Subsequently, four of Morgan’s allies were defeated in the primaries – and Morgan only won reelection by 250 votes.

In 2004, Richard Morgan did not question Art Pope’s use of a ‘527’ group to debate issues during the election. In fact, Richard set up his own ‘527’ group, funded it with corporate money and ran ads of his own.

But that was about to change.

In the fall of 2004, the Democrats retook control of the State House, and, with a Democratic majority, Jim Black no longer needed Republican votes to be elected Speaker. But Morgan decided to continue his ‘alliance’ with Black by running for – with the support of House Democrats – Speaker Pro Tem, the number two position in the House.

The office is largely ceremonial, and powerless, but Morgan’s decision sent a clear message to other Republicans; he was continuing his ‘alliance’ with Jim Black and even if Republicans elected a majority in 2006 to retake control of the House – Morgan could again form a coalition with Black to return to power.

So, in primaries this year, Art Pope again targeted Richard Morgan and his allies for defeat.

To be continued tomorrow…Chapt