When WRAL asked former Governor Jim Hunt about this year’s Democratic governor’s race it was like old times.  Hunt opined about the virtues of positive campaigning: Candidates ought to say what they’d do.  What they stand for.  How they’d move North Carolina forward.  (It was like a flashback to thirty years ago.)

Then the governor was asked, Well, what about the negative ads?

And, this time, it sounded like he decided to straddle the fence.  Well, he said, Moore was wrong about Perdue’s record on Civil Rights.  And Perdue was wrong to say Moore was the pawn of Wallstreet.

Only it didn’t play that way in the press.  What played in the press was Hunt saying Moore smeared Perdue on race.  Which is truly devastating news for Moore.  There’s no one in the Democratic Party more respected than Jim Hunt.  He was governor so long there isn’t another Democrat ‘elder statesmen’ around. 

If the Democrats watching the charges and counter-charges between Perdue and Moore were the least bit confused or unsure who was shading the truth, the Governor just settled the point.

Richard Moore is guilty.

And if that isn’t enough bad news for Moore, Andy Griffith is on TV saying, ‘Bev Perdue will be a gooood Governor.’

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Wachovia Bank just agreed to pay $144 million to settle a fraud case.  (According to the newspapers it was alleged they allowed telemarketers to use Wachovia accounts to steal millions of dollars.)  The bank did not plead guilty or admit guilt, which, in itself, is a commentary on our legal system. How can anyone agree to pay $144 million and maintain their innocence at the same time?

So, what does this have to do with politics?

Well, sometimes it’s hard to tell whether Hillary and Obama are running against each other, George Bush or corporations.  They have ads on TV attacking oil companies and drug companies. Bev Perdue and Richard Moore are each saying the other is the pawn of Wallstreet.  John Edwards, Hillary, Richard Moore and Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, have all attacked Smithfield Foods, right here in North Carolina.  (When Smithfield asked to buy a ticket to the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner, Meeks sent the check back and issued a broadside that was on the Internet before the ink dried.)

The real new political phenomenon this election isn’t college students swooning at Obama rallies, it’s the white-hot anti-corporate sentiment among voters, especially among Democrats – but not just Democrats, last week John McCain went to New York to blast Wallstreet.

If you’re an oil company or drug company or a corporation in the crosshairs of one of the Presidential candidates my suspicion is you’re fast running out of friends in public office.  The safe political move is to attack you in public and vote against you in the legislature.  To do otherwise is the political equivalent of taking your life into your hands.   

For their part, the corporations seem blissfully oblivious to the prospect of facing the political equivalent of Little Big Horn.  They understand the subtleties of derivatives and insider trading but when it comes to politics corporate America is like the gang that couldn’t shoot straight.  Hillary and Obama are talking to voters about greed and corruption and the corporations are acting as if this is just another election where they can mend their fences afterwards by contributing to the inaugural.  What they don’t get is that Obama’s on the verge of winning the Democratic nomination because he says he won’t touch a corporate lobbyist one with a ten foot poll – and a lot of other politicians are getting the message.

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Talk about being the center of the political universe.

North Carolina was it Tuesday.  Barack Obama’s press conference on Jeremiah Wright could turn out to be the pivotal event of the presidential campaign.

Unfortunately, that event – and two others the same day – was all about the issue that forever taints our politics: race.

It was a hat trick:

• Obama’s statement was a bold – and essential – effort to turn the Wright crisis into an opportunity.  As one Democrat here said, “he needed to show some fight.”  I think he did.

• Then Governor Easley tacitly endorsed the underlying premise of Hillary Clinton’s continuing campaign: White people won’t vote for Obama, and if he’s the nominee Democrats will get slaughtered in November.

• In the Democratic governor’s race, former Governor Jim Hunt put a stake in Richard Moore’s heart by saying Moore’s KKK ad “crossed the line.”

Like it or not, it all comes down to race.  Just like it has in North Carolina politics since the 1950 Smith-Graham Senate race.  Or the white-supremacy campaigns at the turn of the (last) century.  Or the Civil War.  Or maybe colonial days.  It never ends.

Obama often has seemed oddly passive in this campaign.  But then he rises to the moment.

If nothing else, you have to admire the man for – in one morning – going full court with the UNC basketball team and then giving a performance that could decide his political future.

Easley’s performance – judging from the news clips – was uncharacteristically energized.  Or should I say manic?  MSNBC made much of his odd remark that Clinton makes Rocky Balboa look like a “pansy.”

Governor Hunt’s comments were the buzz in Raleigh Tuesday.  But I didn’t see them in the N&O.  That’s the only good thing for Moore, because having a still-popular four-time Governor – who now has lived long enough to achieve statesman status – condemn you for crossing the line with an ad about race could be fatal.

All this, plus the North Carolina Republican Party’s Wright ad.  The GOP chair, Linda Daves, is absolutely right that she has a right to run the ad and that Wright’s statements are a legitimate topic for debate.

By the same token, Democrats have the absolute right to point out that her party has been playing the race card to win elections in North Carolina ever since Jim Gardner beat Harold Cooley in that 1966 congressional race.  And that Jesse Helms played the race card for 30 years.

It’s time for her party to be held to account for this history – and for upholding that tradition again this year.

Notably, some Republicans have the guts to say enough is enough.  Like John McCain and Bob Orr.  Some, of course, can’t stop pandering to the worst in North Carolinians.  Like Jim Snyder and the state chair.

We know where you stand.  And so should these hundreds of thousands of new voters – many of them young, minority, female, anti-establishment and pro-change – who have been energized and brought into the process this year.

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Richard Moore needs a bomb to blow up Bev Perdue’s lead.  But the problem with a bomb is that it can go off in your hands.  That appears to be what happened with his Ku Klux Klan ad.

The ad was a reach to start with.  When voters hear, in effect, that Perdue voted with the KKK, they’re skeptical.  They figure there is something more to the story.

And Perdue’s campaign was ready.  They had done their research on this one.  The campaign had responses up quickly from Harvey Gantt and Alma Adams, head of the Legislative Black Caucus.  Somebody should get a gold star.

Now somebody will tell me Perdue is ahead because of her final-weeks conversion to a positive campaign.  I still doubt it.  She gave Moore an opening, but he didn’t take it.  Now he has overreached.  And he’s paying for never having a strong positive message of his own.

Also, Perdue’s ads attack Moore for his negative campaign.  And compared him to Jesse Helms.  That’s not positive.

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I’ll make two predictions about this election.  One I’m sure about; the other, not so much.

Not Sure: This could be a change election like 1960, 1968, 1980 or 1994 – with the impact felt for decades.

Sure: The Democratic Party is growing increasingly anti-corporate.

Only one thing can keep 2008 from being a watershed: Barack Obama fails to reassure people that they can trust him.  Especially, obviously, white people.

He is at risk now, and he has to deal with his Wright and “bitter” problems.  Or he will go the route of Dukakis, Gore and Kerry – being defined early on by the Republicans as unacceptable to Middle America.

If he succeeds, the forces he and Hillary Clinton have set loose will fundamentally change politics nationally and in North Carolina.

Look at what’s happening here: Nearly 200,000 new voters have registered.  Most are Democrats.  They are younger, more liberal, change-oriented and heavily minority.  The primary next week may bring out 800,000 more voters than four years ago.  That’s two or three times the turnout four years ago.  Numbers like that will overwhelm the Republicans this fall.

And studies show that if young people and new voters vote in their first election, they keep voting.

Regardless, businesses are in for a rough ride in North Carolina.  You can tell that by listening to the candidates’ rhetoric.  What they say mirrors what their polls hear from voters.

Clinton and Obama both beat up on oil companies, drug companies, lending companies and insurance companies.  Moore and Perdue promise to stand up for you against the corporations.

This is a long-way from the pro-business rhetoric and policies of Democrats like Jim Hunt and Bill Clinton.  That was so the nineties; this is a new day. 

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So much for Bev Perdue’s no more negative attacks pledge. She just called Richard Moore, Jesse Helms – which is about as mean a charge as you can lay on a fellow in a Democratic Primary.

Then, in case anyone missed her point, she added Moore (who attacked for her for voting, twenty-years ago, against a bill to make it easier for the SBI to investigate groups like the KKK) was guilty of race baiting.

Forgetting her convoluted logic (this has to be the first time anyone has claimed saying they’re pro-Klan is race-baiting) this has to be a record for flip-flopping. Calling your opponent Jesse Helms a week after abjuring negative attacks.

You can’t have it both ways, Bev.

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That didn’t take long.

The party of Lincoln jumped right into Jesse Helms-era race-baiting this week.

And we found out just what a tough, strong, effective leader John McCain is.  He can’t even get a state Republican Party to take down an ad.  Or maybe his demand that the ad be pulled came with a wink, wink.

Why did the ad mention Bev Perdue and Richard Moore?

I suspect the hidden hand behind the ad is the Republican Governors Association.

I doubt the state GOP has anybody who can make an ad of that quality.  So maybe the RGA did the ad – and threw in the gubernatorial candidates to justify the expenditure.

The ad worked.  It put race on the front pages.  The GOP mouthpiece played her part, innocently claiming the ad has nothing to do with racism.  That’s the oldest trick in the book: raising race and, when Democrats cry foul, say they’re raising race.

Carter’s blogs are right about one thing: Obama and the Democrats have to confront this head-on.

We’ve seen this movie before: in 1950, 1984, 1990, 1996, on and on.

Too often, we Democrats have hesitated to call a racist ad what it is.  Too often, we tiptoe around the subject, hoping it will go away.

The Republicans won’t let it go away.  It’s worked for them since 1968.

Democrats have to say: Enough already.  It’s time to move beyond racism.

It’s time to make every Republican candidate – from McCain down to the bottom of the ballot – pay the price for what their party has done for too long.

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While the political world focused on Pennsylvania Tuesday, Bev Perdue’s supporters gave a sigh of relief.

She survived the live TV debate with Richard Moore.

Her campaign has gone to great lengths to minimize her unscripted appearances – in debates and with the media.  Her handlers’ lack of confidence is palpable.

Moore was surprisingly mild in the debate.  No attack dog.  He may have feared looking too mean – especially against a female opponent.

But he missed a chance to force her into a mistake.

Some of us remember the 1988 in the race for Lieutenant Governor between Democrat Tony Rand and Republican Jim Gardner.

Gardner, silver-haired and silver-tongued, jumped all over Rand, who was stumbling and unsteady.

At one point, Gardner gnawed on Rand about his part in the “Gang of Four” that wrote the legislative budget.  Not fair, Rand protested: “There were six or seven people in that room.”

The debate had almost no audience.  But the N&O ran a front page story quoting Democrats dismayed by Rand’s performance.

Gardner won, then went on to lose to Jim Hunt in the 1992 Governor’s race.  Rand wisely decided his career path should be Senate insider, not statewide candidate.

Moore has proved unable, so far, to crack Perdue’s lead.

Part of his problem may prove to be his failure to establish a strong positive, progressive message.  Too often, Moore came across as the perfect Republican candidate: a good money manager, tough on crime.

That’s not a good fit with today’s Democratic primary electorate.  This is a Mommy party, not a Daddy party.

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The NC GOP has an ad attacking Barack Obama, playing a videotape of Reverend Jeremiah Wright saying, “Goddamn America.”

John McCain says he wants the ad pulled.  Now.  Because, ‘It’s degrading.’

And, no doubt, a lot of people will agree.  Because the ad touches racial chords.  So, a lot of people will want this debate to go away.

But it won’t.  One of the stories of this election is Barack Obama is an African-American candidate for President.  How can race not be part of his campaign?  Even in the Democratic Primaries, we’ve seen how Obama’s race is one of the issues impacting how people vote.

And, just as to the point, even as the ads of Wright’s videos touch on a racial chord, the GOP is also raising a legitimate question that is on many people’s minds: Because the ad is also about Jeremiah Wright’s extremism.  The videos are not just pictures of an unusual preacher.  They’re shocking.  They’re an extraordinary mixture of what Sociology professors would call ‘cultural diversity’ and radicalism.

John McCain may prefer to duck the debate and bow out by criticizing the ad.

But Obama can’t.  Politically, he has to take this bull by the horns.  A lot of people are asking themselves, What exactly does all this mean?  And he has to tell them. 

Right now, all people know about Jeremiah Wright is what they’ve seen in the videos.  And, putting it bluntly, he looks viciously anti-American.  Obama has to make the case that is not true.  He has to explain, That’s not the whole story.  For instance, in 1961 Wright gave up a student deferment, left college, and joined the Marine Corps.  He served as a corpsman.  His church lists dozens of ministries, including care for abused spouses, drug addicts, HIV victims, and prisoners.  It gives dozens of scholarships.  But, the same man also said, Goddamn America.  There’s a story here.  Obama has to make his case Wright, in spite of, or in addition to his statements, is a patriot and a good man.  If he can do that he wins the debate, race and all.

But if he dodges and Wright remains the iconic figure in the videos, then it looks like Obama has no answer.  And the ads’ charge – that Obama embraces an unpatriotic extremist – stands.  And Obama pays the political price. 

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Pennsylvania is over – finally.  I’m sick and tired of Chris Matthews telling me how smart “Eddie Rendell” is.

So now North Carolina is the biggest state left.  Bill Clinton is back today.  Hillary and Barack are coming.  The New York Times, the networks, the bigfeet and the bloggers are scoping us out for colorful personalities and incisive looks into our psyche.

We’re giddy.  It’s our day in the sun, our one shining moment.  Finally, North Carolina matters in a presidential race.

Or do we?

Rob Christensen, the man who literally wrote the book on North Carolina politics, throws cold water on us first thing in the morning: It’s Indiana, stupid.

Say it ain’t so.  Don’t take this away from us, Rob.

How long has it been since we mattered in the presidential primaries?  So long ago that the last time (1988) Al Gore was telling us how much he loved tobacco.

Of course, it’s our fault.  All us pundits and all the polls say Obama is so far ahead here that even the Clinton campaign has quietly backed away from predicting a victory.

But Hillary keeps hope alive.  She won’t give up.

She’s turned the race into something like one of those interminable UNC basketball games when Dean Smith stretched out the last two minutes to last about two weeks.  Obama, who is supposed to be quite the hoopster, can’t put her away.

Her only chance now is a miracle, an X-Factor, something so dramatic it convinces the cautious superdelegates that they should overturn the other delegates’ verdict, close though it may be. 

So far, Obama has walked away from the Rev. Wright train wreck and dodged the “I’m Not Bitter” bullet.

More than thirty years ago, North Carolina saved Ronald Reagan’s political career.  Can Hillary pull a Ronnie? 

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Imagine this. Obi-wan Obama the zen-master sitting Buddha-like, voice a calming balm, is giving an interview.

Interviewer: What about the war on terrorism?

Obi-wan: We can save the planet.

Interviewer: What about the war in Iraq?

Obi-wan: We can end a war.

Interviewer: What about corruption and rising unemployment and soaring gas prices and…?

Obi-wan: We can change the world.

Zen politics. Short on where the rubber meets the road. But long on de profundis. So why is this stuff flying like a political rocket ship?

The answer is simple. Obi-wan’s foil. Hillary.

Look at her new ad. Arching an eyebrow she declares pertly, ‘I want to respond to so and so’s email about ‘No Child Left Behind.’ Now does anyone on earth think Hillary picked ‘Joe’s’ email out of a stack at random to answer? Or does someone think, maybe, she took a poll which said attacking George Bush was a good idea?

Normally, you’d expect anyone whose answer to the complex problems facing the United States is an ethereal, We can save the planet – would be disqualified from running for anything other than Student Body President. But Obama’s running against Hillary whose answers – at least in her new ad – sound phony as a three dollar bill.

That’s the choice facing Democratic voters. A zen-master. And a chameleon.

I read in one of the newspapers awhile back (I can’t recall exactly which one) the governor likes to leave Friday for his beach-home, return Monday, and in between spend as much time (after hours) as possible on his hobby, woodworking in the basement of the Governor’s Mansion.

Don’t get me wrong, one of the things I like about Easley is his sanity and this is a sane man’s schedule. The governor is not obsessed with politics. Or government. In fact, running for Governor is about the only unsane thing he’s done.

That said, now we know – given the Governor’s pursuit of a normal life while holding a completely abnormal job – who’s been running State Government. His press office.

Awhile back a highway patrolman got fired for kicking his police dog. Now in my book dog-kicking crosses the line. But the patrolman is suing to get his job back and his boss says he was railroaded because the normal disciplinary process was short-circuited. Why? Because the Press Office wanted him gone.

Now, this is an epiphany. A pinnacle of the modern era. Today, government is run by the Press Office.

A Highway patrolmen kicks his dog. Get rid of him.

The News and Observer says DHHS has wasted $400 million – fire the Department’s Public Affairs Officer, Debbie Crane.

Reporters getting their hands on government emails generates bad press – so delete the emails.

The problem here is simple. Press Officers don’t solve problems. They manage them. Their theory goes like this: If we manage the perceptions and the Governor looks good the problems don’t matter.

But, in that regard, lately, the Press Office has had a disaster on its hands. It’s learning the hard way reality in its mean mode whips perception and no amount of ‘damage control’ can explain away, say, a $400 million mental health disaster, after it blows up.

The result? Today, the Press Office is about shot. According to the newspapers, it’s hard to even get a Press Officer on the phone there these days – which is a pretty clear sign of breakdown when your job is dealing with reporters.

If the Governor’s just got his mind set on keeping on being Mike Easley, and not getting obsessed with running the state, he’s going to have to find a way to replace some Press Officers with some problem solvers. Some folks who deal with reality. Not perception.

He can put running government in their hands and, then, go back to being Mike Easley.

When he gets back from Italy, Governor Easley needs to end this no-win email war with the media.

The fight has poisoned his relationships with the media, especially The News & Observer.  It led to a lawsuit.  And he’s been put on the defensive.

The longer this goes on, the more distractions he will face, the more he will be an even lamer duck and the more he will put his legacy at risk.

It’s time for the NASCAR-loving Governor to get in the passing lane.  He needs a solution that defuses the confrontation, disarms his critics and puts him out front.  Like this:

• Direct that all state employees – repeat, all state employees – must save all emails sent and received.  Repeat, all emails.  Yes, all 500,000 a day (after spam).

• Request a special appropriation, if needed, to pay for the hardware and brainpower to figure out how to store the emails so they can all be available for anyone to inspect at any time.  Tell the media – and the public – to have at it: they can look at any and every email sent to and from anybody who works for the state.

• House this repository in a building located conveniently in the capital complex and named for Franklin Freeman.

Well, I’m not serious about number three.  But there ought to be some kind of monument for a man who has survived as many state government battles as Franklin has – and who served as chief of staff for both Governors Hunt and Easley.  All without knowing how to turn on a computer, let alone send an email.

The best thing about this solution – along with putting the mess behind him – is the pleasure Easley will have in future years watching his successors struggle with what he wrought.

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Let’s suppose you agree with Bev Perdue’s sudden conversion to campaign ads that are all positive, all the time.  You believe candidates’ ads should be about themselves and never, never, ever even so much as mention their opponents.

Now let’s suppose you are an adviser to Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for the fall campaign against John McCain.

One of your media consultants comes up with this ad:

“John McCain says America is on the right course in the Iraq war.  I believe John McCain is wrong.”

The ad is true.  It’s a fair statement of McCain’s position.  And it’s one of the most important issues facing America this year.

But it mentions your opponent.  It is “negative.”

And you’re not going to say it?

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Dr. Bert Coffer of Raleigh, who died last week, was one of the finest people I ever met in politics.

I feel that way even though Bert was one of Jesse Helms’ best friends and strongest supporters.

I got to know Bert working on a health-care issue several years ago. 

He was a friendly, unassuming man.  But he was direct and tough as nails.  When he promised to do something, he did it.  There aren’t many people in politics you can say that about.

He was a doctor first and foremost, an anesthesiologist.  But he understood what was happening in health care better than most doctors – and how politics was changing health care.  That’s why he got involved.

One fellow doctor told him, “I’m not interested in politics.”  Bert shot back, “Well, politics is interested in you.”

Bert gave a lot of his time and money to affect how politics affected health care.

I admired that, and I came to admire him as a man.  When my father had to have surgery near the end of his life, I asked Bert to be his anesthesiologist. 

I can pay him no higher compliment.

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Representative Joe Boylan has gotten himself in a big mess.

A year ago Joe passed out on the House floor and said it was a bout of flu and dehydration. Which sounded fine. And made sense. But, then, the newspapers reported Boylan, who’s married, had made “a drunken pass at a female legislator” in a Raleigh watering hole. (Several  female legislators, outraged, described it more bluntly as ‘groping’). Boylan said it was all lies spread by his political enemies.

Then one night last week a highway patrolman arrested Representative Boylan for drunk driving and with no political enemies in sight he fessed up. He’s been battling a drinking problem. And, now, he’s going straight to rehab.

It’s been a tough two years for Joe Boylan but he’s not the only person in North Carolina – and probably not in the legislature – with a drinking problem and, hopefully, he’ll get his feet back on the ground and make the best of a second chance.

But what’s more interesting are Joe’s supporters’ reactions to his foibles. One group is shocked. They say they can’t support him for reelection. But another group is sticking with him. They’ve forgiven him.

But – and this is the odd thing – while they’re preaching forgiveness on one hand they’re picking up a cudgel with the other hand. And they’re swinging it at Joe’s other supporters – the ones who aren’t so forgiving.

I asked my friend, Richard, the intellectual about all this. He pondered a moment. Then said, Well, it’s pretty simple. The kind of forgiveness you get in church works like a balm. But political forgiveness works like this: Their guy gets in a mess. The way out is to ask folks to forgive him. And, then, to pick up a cudgel and attack anyone who doesn’t.

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Bev Perdue’s campaign manager is filling Internet Inboxes with messages from people praising Perdue, pounding her on the back, for renouncing negative ads. In one email he quotes Priscilla and Kathy and Donna as gushing, “Way to go… you very well may have earned my vote… Mr. Moore’s negative ads have totally turned me off.”

First, an aside: Isn’t Mrs. Perdue slamming Mr. Moore for running dirty campaign ads, well, a negative attack? If so, Beverly’s fallen off the wagon a week after she pledged to stay out of the dirt.

Second, a paradox.

Richard Moore has an ad on TV about a company Perdue co-owns that failed to pay its property taxes on time. The News and Observer says the ad is 100% accurate.

Perdue also has a positive ad she’s aired about her efforts to keep North Carolina’s military bases in open. The Associated Press says: “A key claim of Perdue’s ad that the federal government threatened to close bases in North Carolina is misleading.”

So, what’s worse: Moore’s accurate negative ad? Or Perdue’s misleading positive one?

It seems Perdue has adopted an odd sort of ethic. She’s against telling the truth if it’s negative. But fiction is fine if it’s positive.

Let’s carry this a bit farther. If Mrs. Perdue had her way, the only thing anyone would learn about her record from a TV ad is what she tells them. So she can say she saved Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune and if Moore says, “Wait a minute. The Associated Press says that’s untrue” – that’s verboten. It’s negative.

What kind of sense does that make?

The most negative campaign ever in North Carolina was Helms vs. Hunt. It was also the campaign with the highest turnout ever.

Should Hunt not have had his say about Helms’ record on social security? Or abortion? Or Helms opposing the Martin Luther King Holiday?

Should Helms not have had his say about Hunt’s record on the Panama Canal, taxes and flip-flops?

Should Barack Obama not be able to criticize George Bush – in ads – about the war in Iraq?

Should John McCain not be able to criticize Obama and say he’s dead wrong about the war on terrorism?

Beverly Perdue’s answer to that is no.

No debate. Just positive gushing.

I don’t think Mrs. Perdue has had the great moral epiphany her campaign manager is describing. I think the answer is simpler: Mr. Moore turned up the heat and Bev’s reaction was an irrational, ‘Oh my gosh. Let’s ban stoves.’

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A political campaign, by nature, is born in chaos. Think of it this way: In twelve months Barack Obama has created the equivalent of a mammoth $200 million corporation, employing hundreds of people who’ve, mostly, never worked together before. Add to that fierce competition and you can see why most campaigns become not well-oiled machines, but out of control juggernauts.

About the best a campaign can hope for, if it ever gets its feet on the ground, is to have time to take a breath and find a way to win. And that’s not simple either. Reading the shifting sands of public opinion (the be-all and end-all of politics) can be a mystery. And charting a course can be pure blind guesswork. But, that said, in a good campaign a moment sometimes comes when you say, I get it. I know where this election is going, and the revelation is clear as a bell. You can feel the gears click into place. The juggernaut has direction.

Barack Obama has had that moment. He knows what his election – in the primary – is about. He knows where he’s going. He knows what to do to win.

Hillary, on the other hand, is befuddled.

North Carolina is a good example.

Obama – I’m guessing – has set a target to win 90-95% of the African-American vote. A goal he has repeatedly accomplished. Then, I’m guessing, he asked himself, How much of the other votes do I need to win? The answer is around 20%. Then he says, Where do I get it? And the answer is simple: White liberals who prefer him to Hillary because he opposed the war in Iraq from the start.

Boom. His strategy is clear as a bell. He’s put Hillary in a box. She has to get 80% of the non-African-American vote or she loses.

What’s Hillary’s solution? She’s spent $169 million and hasn’t found one.

One pundit did recently speculate she and Bill do have a secret strategy. But don’t dare articulate it. They think Obama’s nomination will be a disaster for the Democratic Party. That this fall Obama will march off the left end of the earth taking the Democrats down in flames.

But Hillary’s afraid to say that because it might backfire, like Bill comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson. She doesn’t dare point to the video’s of Rev. Wright and say, ‘Look at this. Imagine what Republicans are going to do with this in November’ – because she’ll be called racist.

So, instead, we have this: Hillary and Obama both have ads on TV about gas prices.

Hillary says in her ad (answering an email from a fan), “Well, Tammie… we need to reach energy independence, and the only way we’ll do that is to stop buying oil from over there and start creating alternative, renewable energy over here.”

Compare that to Obama’s ad. He says, “I don’t take money from oil companies or Washington lobbyists, and I won’t let them block change anymore. They’ll pay a penalty for windfall profits.”

Hillary’s for something called ‘alternative energy;’ Obama’s fighting the bad guys to stop them blocking change. He’s identified the villain. In his ad – at least, politically – all the pieces fit together with razor sharp symmetry.

In North Carolina, according to a Democratic Pollster (Public Policy Polling), Obama leads Hillary by a whopping 20%. 54% to 34%. His lead is based on his overwhelming support from African-Americans, where he’s beating Hillary 81% to 10% – which means his accomplishing his goal. Do the math. He’s getting 90% of the decided African-American voters.

How’s he doing with everyone else? He trails Hillary by 16%. 51% to 35%. But he only needs 20%, so he’s exceeded his goal.

For Hillary to win, and reach 80%, she has to get every single undecided vote and also persuade 40% of the people voting for Obama to switch to her. And it’s hard to see how she does that by talking to Tammie about the virtues of alternative energy – which, of course, Obama is for too.

So Obama’s had his moment. He’s figured out, Here’s what I have to do to win. And Hillary hasn’t and that’s Hillary’s blues.

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You could see this train wreck coming.  Less than a week after Bev Perdue promised a positive campaign, the N&O headline says: “Mailer contradicts Perdue's message.”

It turns out the National Education Association “had already sent 10,000 glossy attacks on Moore to retired educators in North Carolina.”

So Moore is holding a news conference this morning – doubtless to say the mailing proves you can’t trust Perdue.

Perdue, as expected, now could look like a hypocrite.

Her pledge was a needless and reckless risk.  The race has tightened, but the dynamic of the presidential primary helps her by boosting votes among African-Americans and women.

But now her integrity and trustworthiness are a central issue.

If she loses, this is why.

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I know Gary and Jim Hunt have been friends for years, so, I’m going to apologize up front, in advance, because I’m going to poke a little fun – good naturedly – at former Governor Hunt.

There’s a lot to be said for Jim Hunt. I still remember the first time I laid eyes on him, the night of the first Helms-Hunt debate in 1984. By then, I’d spent a year reading files – everything our researchers could dig up – and had a picture of Hunt as a politician with his finger to the wind, who’d been on both sides of just about every issue. We even had two newspaper stories, one where Hunt endorsed longer school years and another where he endorsed shorter school years.

So, I walked into the debate in the public TV studios at NCSU expecting to see the political equivalent of Wally Cox (the diminutive, shy comedian from the 1960’s) climbing into the debate ring with the proven bull-mastiff of North Carolina politics – Jesse Helms – and getting eaten alive.

One look at Hunt disabused me of that motion. I remember watching him stride into the studio – looking wiry and athletic – and thinking, clear as a bell, “He isn’t what I expected at all.”

There was plenty of fight in Jim Hunt that night. He won the debate hands down. And that’s one of the things about Hunt, like him or not, you have to respect – he’s a fighter.

The other night I turned on the TV and there was Jim Hunt, big as life, again, being interviewed on UNC-TV. Now by my reckoning, Governor Hunt, must be just past seventy. His first election was thirty-six years ago. His last election was over a decade ago. He faces no more campaigns. Has no more political mountains to climb. And by all measures should be long-past the age he needed to worry about walking on political eggshells. It was a good time for Governor Hunt to let his hair down and maybe do a bit of good old-fashioned truth telling. Instead, he seems to have been infected by a malaise that can be deadly to political figures at the end of their careers.

Most of the elected officials I’ve met, the super-star politicians, like Jesse Helms and Jim Hunt – have a bit of rock star in them. It’s not exactly that they thrive on the fame that comes with being a governor or senator, but they definitely feed on the mass adoration that comes with public office. It can become an addiction and their calculations – about how to increase their popularity – can color every word they say.

But, you’d expect, when the final curtain falls and they ride into the sunset they’d get shed their addiction. But, instead, their desire for applause exceeds the simple ambition to get reelected.

Suddenly, elected officials who’ve spent years focused on staying in office with laser-like intensity, start pondering their legacy. What will the next generation of people think of them? They start building libraries and museums to promote their legacy and write autobiographies and memoirs – like Bill Clinton’s tome – to be sure no one misunderstands their virtues and, in some ways, this is the worst obsession of all. Jesse Helms was not immune to that bug. And, his long-time antagonist, Jim Hunt seems to have caught it too.

So, instead of getting a glimpse behind the curtain of politics, Governor Hunt’s interview was like déjà vu all over again. The same old rhetoric. The same old earnestness. We got a dose of Jim Hunt polishing his image for posterity.

There is no doubt Governor Hunt – author of one of the great comebacks in North Carolina history – has a fascinating story to tell.

It’s a shame he didn’t tell it.

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My friend Bruce Thompson – a